The median single-family home in the Austin metro sold for $369,000 in October 2020, up 13.1% year over year. Active inventory stood at 4,594 listings, down 30.1% year over year. The share selling above asking was 38%. The 30-year fixed averaged 2.83% that month, the lowest monthly average in this series so far. That made it an extreme seller's market.
Austin market statistics, October 2020
| Metric | October 2020 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $369,000 (+13.1% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $174 (+10.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,254 (+24.0% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,081 |
| Active inventory | 4,594 (-30.1% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.4 |
| Median days on market | 37 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 100.2% |
| Sold above asking | 38.1% |
| Listings with a price cut | 17.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 2.83% |
38% Over Asking, in October
Thirty-eight percent of homes sold above list in October, in what is normally the softest quarter of the year. Inventory fell to 1.4 months. The seasonal pattern that had held for a decade simply stopped applying.
What changed since September 2020
The median rose $10,000 from September 2020, a 2.8% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 37. Active inventory shrank by 548 listings, to 4,594. The share of homes selling over asking gained 4.3 points, to 38.1%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| October 2020 | September 2020 | October 2019 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $369,000 | $359,000 | $326,357 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 37 | 33 | 38 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 4,594 | 5,142 | 6,569 | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| Months of supply | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | range 1.2–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 38% | 34% | 19% | highest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 2.83% | 2.89% | 3.69% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where October 2020 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.4 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
The average sale closed at 100.2% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $369,000 with 20% down at 2.83%, principal and interest runs about $1,218 a month. Add roughly $615 for property taxes and $246 for insurance and you are near $2,079 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 37 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Crestview & Brentwood (78756 & 78757). Little Deli, Brentwood Social House, Crestview Station. Known for old-Austin feel, hidden gems. It fits buyers who want a neighborhood that still feels like old Austin.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Crestview & Brentwood does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/crestview-brentwood/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, October 2020
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| October 2020 | ACL Music Festival, cancelled | Called off for the year. Zilker stayed open and 78704 had its first normal October in two decades. |
| October 2020 | Formula 1 United States Grand Prix, cancelled | Called off for the year. No race weekend, and southeast Travis County kept its roads. |
What is coming next
The November 3 election. And the increasingly persistent rumors that a major California company is moving its headquarters here.
Common questions
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 37 days in October 2020. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 58 in January 2019.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
Depends entirely on your timeline. At 1.4 months of supply you are competing, paying up, and giving up contingencies. If you need to be in a house this year, you buy and you accept the terms. If you can wait, understand that you are paying a premium for urgency.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers October 2020; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.