Money cost 2.89% in September 2020. The average 30-year fixed rate for the month, the lowest monthly average in this series so far. The average sale closed at 99.8% of list. The share selling above asking was 34%. That made it an extreme seller's market.
Austin market statistics, September 2020
| Metric | September 2020 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $359,000 (+12.9% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $169 (+8.4% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,422 (+29.4% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,888 |
| Active inventory | 5,142 (-25.7% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.5 |
| Median days on market | 33 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.8% |
| Sold above asking | 33.8% |
| Listings with a price cut | 17.3% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 2.89% |
The First Sub-3% Mortgage in History
The 30-year fixed dropped below 3% for the first time on record. Combined with 1.5 months of supply, this is the exact condition that produces bidding wars: the cheapest money in history chasing the smallest selection in a decade.
What changed since August 2020
The median rose $4,000 from August 2020, a 1.1% move. Time on market lengthened by 16 days, to 33. Active inventory grew by 133 listings, to 5,142. The share of homes selling over asking gained 1.5 points, to 33.8%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| September 2020 | August 2020 | September 2019 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $359,000 | $355,000 | $318,000 | range $255,626–$359,000 |
| Median days on market | 33 | 17 | 34 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 5,142 | 5,009 | 6,921 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.6 | range 1.2–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 34% | 32% | 19% | highest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 2.89% | 2.94% | 3.6% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where September 2020 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.5 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
The average sale closed at 99.8% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $359,000 with 20% down at 2.89%, principal and interest runs about $1,194 a month. Add roughly $598 for property taxes and $239 for insurance and you are near $2,032 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 33 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Hyde Park (78751). North Loop, North University. Known for craftsman bungalows, established. It fits buyers who want an established neighborhood with long-term value.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Hyde Park does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/hyde-park/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, September 2020
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| September 2020 | Public events, cancelled | Austin's public event calendar did not run in its usual form. Large gatherings were restricted from mid-March 2020, and the festivals, races and street closures that normally shape a month here were cancelled, moved online or held at reduced size. |
What is coming next
The November 3 election. Prop A funds transit with a permanent property tax increase: read it before you vote on it, especially if you are about to buy.
Common questions
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
Depends entirely on your timeline. At 1.5 months of supply you are competing, paying up, and giving up contingencies. If you need to be in a house this year, you buy and you accept the terms. If you can wait, understand that you are paying a premium for urgency.
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers September 2020; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.