In November 2020, 40% of the homes that closed across the Austin metro went for over list. The 30-year fixed averaged 2.77% that month, the lowest monthly average in this series so far. The median sale was $368,000, up 20.7% year over year. That made it an extreme seller's market.
Austin market statistics, November 2020
| Metric | November 2020 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $368,000 (+20.7% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $177 (+14.9% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,999 (+22.7% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,253 |
| Active inventory | 3,831 (-35.5% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.3 |
| Median days on market | 35 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 100.4% |
| Sold above asking | 39.9% |
| Listings with a price cut | 13.9% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 2.77% |
Austin Votes for $7.1 Billion of Transit
Voters approved Proposition A on November 3 with about 58%, the $7.1 billion Project Connect transit plan and its 8.75-cent tax rate increase, and Proposition B, a $460 million mobility bond. Meanwhile the median was up 20.7% year over year and 40% of homes sold above list. In November.
What changed since October 2020
The median fell $1,000 from October 2020, a 0.3% move. Time on market shortened by 2 days, to 35. Active inventory shrank by 763 listings, to 3,831. The share of homes selling over asking gained 1.8 points, to 39.9%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| November 2020 | October 2020 | November 2019 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $368,000 | $369,000 | $305,000 | range $255,626–$369,000 |
| Median days on market | 35 | 37 | 41 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 3,831 | 4,594 | 5,939 | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| Months of supply | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | range 1.2–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 40% | 38% | 19% | highest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 2.77% | 2.83% | 3.7% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where November 2020 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.3 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
The average sale closed at 100.4% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $368,000 with 20% down at 2.77%, principal and interest runs about $1,205 a month. Add roughly $613 for property taxes and $245 for insurance and you are near $2,064 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 35 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Northwest Hills (78731). Highland Park, Mesa Park. Known for quiet, large lots, family neighborhoods. It fits families who want space and a central location.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Northwest Hills does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/northwest-hills/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, November 2020
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| November 2020 | Public events, cancelled | Austin's public event calendar did not run in its usual form. Large gatherings were restricted from mid-March 2020, and the festivals, races and street closures that normally shape a month here were cancelled, moved online or held at reduced size. |
What is coming next
Oracle is reportedly moving its headquarters to Austin.
Common questions
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in November 2020 was $368,000. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In November 2020, an extreme seller's market, 1.3 months of supply, with 40% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 1.2 months in July 2020 to 3.8 in January 2019.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 35 days in November 2020. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 58 in January 2019.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers November 2020; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.