The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.69% in October 2019. The share selling above asking was 19%. Closed volume was 2,625 homes, up 14.8% year over year. The median sale was $326,357, up 6.0% year over year. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, October 2019
| Metric | October 2019 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $326,357 (+6.0% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $158 (+3.8% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,625 (+14.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,783 |
| Active inventory | 6,569 (-11.9% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.5 |
| Median days on market | 38 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.5% |
| Sold above asking | 19.0% |
| Listings with a price cut | 34.1% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.69% |
The Code Rewrite Returns, and So Does the Fight
The land development code revision draft came out October 4. The post-CodeNEXT attempt, with transition zones along corridors and increased entitlements on a large share of the city's lots. The neighborhood opposition organized within days. First reading is set for December.
What changed since September 2019
The median rose $8,357 from September 2019, a 2.6% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 38. Active inventory shrank by 352 listings, to 6,569. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 0.2 points, to 19.0%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| October 2019 | September 2019 | October 2018 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $326,357 | $318,000 | $308,000 | range $255,626–$332,327 |
| Median days on market | 38 | 34 | 45 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 6,569 | 6,921 | 7,460 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.3 | range 2.1–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 19% | 19% | 15% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.69% | 3.6% | 4.83% | range 3.44%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where October 2019 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.5 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average sale closed at 98.5% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $326,357 with 20% down at 3.69%, principal and interest runs about $1,200 a month. Add roughly $544 for property taxes and $218 for insurance and you are near $1,962 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 38 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Deep South Austin (78745). Cherry Creek, Garrison Park, Manchaca. Known for value, access, first-time buyers. It fits first-time buyers and young families.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Deep South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, October 2019
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4–13 | ACL Music Festival, Zilker Park | Two weekends. Zilker, Barton Hills and 78704 are closed to normal traffic both of them, and rental demand spikes citywide. |
| Late October | Austin Film Festival, Downtown theatres and hotels | Eight days across downtown venues. Hotel demand overlaps the Grand Prix weekend most years, which is when downtown rates peak. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
Council readings in December and again in early 2020. A lawsuit challenging the process is widely expected.
Common questions
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in October 2019 was $326,357. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In October 2019, a market tilted to sellers, 2.5 months of supply, with 19% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.8 in January 2019.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 38 days in October 2019. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 58 in January 2019.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers October 2019; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.