In October 2018, 15% of Austin-area homes sold for more than the asking price. The median sale was $308,000, up 6.3% year over year. Homes took a median of 45 days to sell. Active inventory stood at 7,460 listings, up 7.7% year over year. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, October 2018
| Metric | October 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $308,000 (+6.3% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $152 (+4.8% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,286 (+3.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,515 |
| Active inventory | 7,460 (+7.7% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.3 |
| Median days on market | 45 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.0% |
| Sold above asking | 15.2% |
| Listings with a price cut | 36.5% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.83% |
The Week Austin Couldn’t Drink Its Water
Flooding on the Llano River pushed so much silt into the Highland Lakes that Austin issued a citywide boil-water notice from October 22 to 28. The first in the city's history. It was a week-long reminder that Austin's water comes from a river system, and that river system floods.
What changed since September 2018
The median rose $7,250 from September 2018, a 2.4% move. Time on market lengthened by 8 days, to 45. Active inventory shrank by 261 listings, to 7,460. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 0.4 points, to 15.2%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| October 2018 | September 2018 | October 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $308,000 | $300,750 | $289,875 | range $255,626–$325,000 |
| Median days on market | 45 | 37 | 42 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 7,460 | 7,721 | 6,925 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | range 2.1–3.4 |
| Sold above asking | 15% | 16% | 15% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.83% | 4.63% | 3.9% | highest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where October 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 3.3 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.0% of asking, so roughly 2.0% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $308,000 with 20% down at 4.83%, principal and interest runs about $1,297 a month. Add roughly $513 for property taxes and $205 for insurance and you are near $2,016 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 45 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Downtown Austin (78701). Rainey Street, 6th Street, Congress Ave. Known for high-rise condos, walkable nightlife. It fits professionals who want urban living without a commute, and runs $350K condos to $1M+ penthouses.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Downtown Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/downtown-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, October 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5–14 | ACL Music Festival, Zilker Park | Two weekends. Zilker, Barton Hills and 78704 are closed to normal traffic both of them, and rental demand spikes citywide. |
| Oct 21 | Formula 1 United States Grand Prix, Circuit of the Americas, southeast | Race weekend. Southeast Travis County and SH-130 congest from Friday, and downtown hotel rates hit their annual high. |
| Late October | Austin Film Festival, Downtown theatres and hotels | Eight days across downtown venues. Hotel demand overlaps the Grand Prix weekend most years, which is when downtown rates peak. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
The November 6 election. And if you are shopping anywhere near a creek, the city's Flood Pro tool is free and better than the FEMA map alone.
Common questions
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $308,000 with 20% down at 4.83%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $2,016 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $81,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in October 2018 was $308,000. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In October 2018, a market tilted to sellers, 3.3 months of supply, with 15% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.4 in September 2018.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers October 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.