Money cost 4.63% in September 2018. The average 30-year fixed rate for the month, the highest monthly average in this series so far. Active inventory stood at 7,721 listings, up 3.9% year over year. At 3.4 months of supply, it was a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, September 2018
| Metric | September 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $300,750 (+3.4% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $150 (+5.1% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,288 (-2.0% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,459 |
| Active inventory | 7,721 (+3.9% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.4 |
| Median days on market | 37 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.1% |
| Sold above asking | 15.7% |
| Listings with a price cut | 35.8% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.63% |
Fall Is the Buyer’s Quarter
The seasonal handoff is visible in the data every year: days on market climbs from the low 20s in spring to the high 40s by November, and the share of homes selling above list falls by ten points. Nothing about the houses changed. The competition left.
What changed since August 2018
The median fell $20,250 from August 2018, a 6.3% move. Time on market lengthened by 3 days, to 37. Active inventory shrank by 248 listings, to 7,721. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.9 points, to 15.7%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| September 2018 | August 2018 | September 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $300,750 | $321,000 | $290,976 | range $255,626–$325,000 |
| Median days on market | 37 | 34 | 39 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 7,721 | 7,969 | 7,430 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Sold above asking | 16% | 18% | 15% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.63% | 4.55% | 3.8% | highest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where September 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 3.4 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.1% of asking, so roughly 1.9% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $300,750 with 20% down at 4.63%, principal and interest runs about $1,238 a month. Add roughly $501 for property taxes and $201 for insurance and you are near $1,939 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 37 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
UT Area & Bryker Woods (78703 & 78705). West Campus, Bryker Woods, Old West Austin. Known for uT-adjacent investment potential. It fits investors and buyers who want to be in the center of everything.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, UT Area & Bryker Woods does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/ut-area-bryker-woods/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, September 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29–30 | Pecan Street Festival (Fall), Sixth Street Historic District | The autumn edition, same footprint as May. Sixth Street closed for the weekend, downtown slow, nothing beyond it. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
The November 6 bond election. Also the annual reminder that October is when sellers who listed in June finally cut price.
Common questions
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in September 2018 was $300,750. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In September 2018, a market tilted to sellers, 3.4 months of supply, with 16% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.4 in September 2018.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 37 days in September 2018. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 54 in December 2017.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers September 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.