Austin-area agents closed 2,192 sales in November 2018, up 2.5% year over year. The median sale was $300,000, flat against a year earlier at +1.7%. Homes took a median of 49 days to sell. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, November 2018
| Metric | November 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $300,000 (+1.7% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $148 (+3.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,192 (+2.5% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,073 |
| Active inventory | 6,912 (+9.6% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.2 |
| Median days on market | 49 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.1% |
| Sold above asking | 15.5% |
| Listings with a price cut | 29.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.87% |
Austin Passes Its Largest Housing Bond
Voters passed all seven bond propositions on November 6, including Proposition A, $250 million for affordable housing, the largest such bond in Austin history. Separately, Amazon picked New York and Northern Virginia on November 13. Austin was out.
What changed since October 2018
The median fell $8,000 from October 2018, a 2.6% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 49. Active inventory shrank by 548 listings, to 6,912. The share of homes selling over asking gained 0.3 points, to 15.5%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| November 2018 | October 2018 | November 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $300,000 | $308,000 | $295,000 | range $255,626–$325,000 |
| Median days on market | 49 | 45 | 46 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 6,912 | 7,460 | 6,307 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | range 2.1–3.4 |
| Sold above asking | 16% | 15% | 15% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.87% | 4.83% | 3.92% | highest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where November 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 3.2 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.1% of asking, so roughly 1.9% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $300,000 with 20% down at 4.87%, principal and interest runs about $1,269 a month. Add roughly $500 for property taxes and $200 for insurance and you are near $1,969 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 49 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
East Austin (78702). Holly, Rosewood. Known for creative, eclectic, strong appreciation. It fits buyers who want character and culture.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, East Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/east-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, November 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Early to mid-November | Texas Book Festival, Texas Capitol grounds | Congress Avenue and the Capitol grounds close for the weekend. Central showings north of the river lose an afternoon. |
| Nov 22 | ThunderCloud Subs Turkey Trot, Downtown / Long Center | Thanksgiving morning, tens of thousands of runners downtown. Nobody is buying a house that week, which is exactly why the last week of November is worth a serious offer. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
Persistent rumors of a large Apple expansion in north Austin. The 86th Legislature convenes in January with property tax caps as the marquee fight.
Common questions
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $300,000 with 20% down at 4.87%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $1,969 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $79,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers November 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.