Austin-area agents closed 2,727 sales in July 2016, down 8.6% year over year. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.44% that month. The median sale was $289,900, up 6.6% year over year. Homes took a median of 19 days to sell. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, July 2016
| Metric | July 2016 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $289,900 (+6.6% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $139 (+7.0% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,727 (-8.6% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,369 |
| Active inventory | 6,891 (+5.6% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.5 |
| Median days on market | 19 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.0% |
| Sold above asking | 26.7% |
| Listings with a price cut | 33.8% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.44% |
Rates Near Multi-Year Lows, Inventory Near Multi-Year Lows
July is the hinge of the Austin year: families who need to be in a district before the first bell are done, and everyone else slows down. The two facts sitting on top of each other this summer are cheap money and thin supply, which is a combination that rewards whoever is already pre-approved and unsentimental.
What changed since June 2016
The median fell $5,350 from June 2016, a 1.8% move. Time on market held flat, to 19. Active inventory grew by 318 listings, to 6,891. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.0 points, to 26.7%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| July 2016 | June 2016 | July 2015 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $289,900 | $295,250 | — | — |
| Median days on market | 19 | 19 | — | — |
| Active inventory | 6,891 | 6,573 | — | — |
| Months of supply | 2.5 | 2.1 | — | — |
| Sold above asking | 27% | 28% | — | — |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.44% | 3.57% | — | — |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where July 2016 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.5 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average sale closed at 99.0% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $289,900 with 20% down at 3.44%, principal and interest runs about $1,034 a month. Add roughly $483 for property taxes and $193 for insurance and you are near $1,710 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 19 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Downtown Austin (78701). Rainey Street, 6th Street, Congress Ave. Known for high-rise condos, walkable nightlife. It fits professionals who want urban living without a commute, and runs $350K condos to $1M+ penthouses.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Downtown Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/downtown-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, July 2016
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4 | Fourth of July Concert and Fireworks, Auditorium Shores / Lady Bird Lake | The Austin Symphony on Auditorium Shores with fireworks over the lake. Downtown and the south shore close from late afternoon. |
What is coming next
August is when the listings that did not sell in spring get their prices cut. If you are buying, that is the month the market briefly talks back.
Common questions
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in July 2016 was $289,900. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In July 2016, a market tilted to sellers, 2.5 months of supply, with 27% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 19 days in July 2016. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers July 2016; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.