Half the homes that sold across the Austin metro in August 2016 went for more than $289,700, and half for less, up 8.1% year over year. The share selling above asking was 23%. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.44% that month. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, August 2016
| Metric | August 2016 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $289,700 (+8.1% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $139 (+6.2% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,866 (+4.0% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,760 |
| Active inventory | 6,703 (+4.3% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.3 |
| Median days on market | 23 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.5% |
| Sold above asking | 22.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 33.9% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.44% |
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What changed since July 2016
The median fell $200 from July 2016, a 0.1% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 23. Active inventory shrank by 188 listings, to 6,703. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 4.1 points, to 22.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| August 2016 | July 2016 | August 2015 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $289,700 | $289,900 | — | — |
| Median days on market | 23 | 19 | — | — |
| Active inventory | 6,703 | 6,891 | — | — |
| Months of supply | 2.3 | 2.5 | — | — |
| Sold above asking | 23% | 27% | — | — |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.44% | 3.44% | — | — |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where August 2016 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.3 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average home sold for 98.5% of asking, so roughly 1.5% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $289,700 with 20% down at 3.44%, principal and interest runs about $1,033 a month. Add roughly $483 for property taxes and $193 for insurance and you are near $1,709 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 23 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
East Austin (78702). Holly, Rosewood. Known for creative, eclectic, strong appreciation. It fits buyers who want character and culture.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, East Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/east-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, August 2016
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Late August | Bat Fest, Congress Avenue Bridge | The Congress Avenue Bridge closes for the evening. A reminder that August in Austin is the month buyers stop touring and start waiting for October. |
What is coming next
Corridor money changes what a street is like to live on, and eventually what a house on it is worth. If you are buying near any of those six, read the project list before you read the listing.
Common questions
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $289,700 with 20% down at 3.44%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $1,709 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $68,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in August 2016 was $289,700. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In August 2016, a seller's market, 2.3 months of supply, with 23% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers August 2016; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.