In June 2016, 28% of Austin-area homes sold for more than the asking price. The median sale was $295,250, up 7.4% year over year. Homes took a median of 19 days to sell. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, June 2016
| Metric | June 2016 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $295,250 (+7.4% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $139 (+6.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,192 (+10.5% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,758 |
| Active inventory | 6,573 (+9.3% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.1 |
| Median days on market | 19 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.0% |
| Sold above asking | 27.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 31.5% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.57% |
Brexit Pushed Mortgage Rates Down. Should You Care?
On June 23 the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Money moved into US Treasuries, yields fell, and mortgage rates followed them down: a reminder that the rate on an Austin loan is set by a global market, not a local one.
What changed since May 2016
The median rose $7,165 from May 2016, a 2.5% move. Time on market lengthened by 3 days, to 19. Active inventory grew by 666 listings, to 6,573. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.9 points, to 27.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| June 2016 | May 2016 | June 2015 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $295,250 | $288,085 | — | — |
| Median days on market | 19 | 16 | — | — |
| Active inventory | 6,573 | 5,907 | — | — |
| Months of supply | 2.1 | 2.1 | — | — |
| Sold above asking | 28% | 30% | — | — |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.57% | 3.6% | — | — |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where June 2016 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.1 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed at 99.0% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $295,250 with 20% down at 3.57%, principal and interest runs about $1,070 a month. Add roughly $492 for property taxes and $197 for insurance and you are near $1,759 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 19 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
UT Area & Bryker Woods (78703 & 78705). West Campus, Bryker Woods, Old West Austin. Known for uT-adjacent investment potential. It fits investors and buyers who want to be in the center of everything.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, UT Area & Bryker Woods does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/ut-area-bryker-woods/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, June 2016
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-June | Republic of Texas Biker Rally, Travis County Expo Center, east | Four days. Congress Avenue and the east side carry the traffic and the noise; the effect on showings is loud rather than obstructive. |
| Jun 19 | Juneteenth, East Austin | Parade and celebrations through east Austin, where the holiday has been marked since 1867. Street closures in 78702 and around Rosewood. |
What is coming next
Cheap money is only useful if there is something to buy with it. Watch inventory rather than the rate sheet; a lower payment on a house you never got under contract is not a saving.
Common questions
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 19 days in June 2016. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
Depends entirely on your timeline. At 2.1 months of supply you are competing, paying up, and giving up contingencies. If you need to be in a house this year, you buy and you accept the terms. If you can wait, understand that you are paying a premium for urgency.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers June 2016; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.