The average Austin-area sale closed at 97.9% of asking in January 2018. Active inventory stood at 5,170 listings, up 6.7% year over year. The share selling above asking was 15%. The 30-year fixed averaged 4.03% that month. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, January 2018
| Metric | January 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $290,349 (+3.6% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $143 (+2.0% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,586 (+7.2% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,127 |
| Active inventory | 5,170 (+6.7% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.3 |
| Median days on market | 51 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.9% |
| Sold above asking | 15.3% |
| Listings with a price cut | 24.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.03% |
Austin Makes the Amazon Shortlist
Austin was named one of 20 finalists for Amazon HQ2 on January 18. The local reaction split cleanly between people who wanted the jobs and people who had watched what a decade of growth had already done to the cost of a house here. Both groups were arguing about the same number.
What changed since December 2017
The median fell $18,651 from December 2017, a 6.0% move. Time on market shortened by 3 days, to 51. Active inventory shrank by 347 listings, to 5,170. The share of homes selling over asking gained 0.9 points, to 15.3%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| January 2018 | December 2017 | January 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $290,349 | $309,000 | $280,199 | range $255,626–$314,500 |
| Median days on market | 51 | 54 | 44 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 5,170 | 5,517 | 4,847 | range 4,660–7,915 |
| Months of supply | 3.3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 15% | 14% | 19% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.03% | 3.95% | 4.15% | range 3.44%–4.2% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where January 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 3.3 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 97.9% of asking, so roughly 2.1% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $290,349 with 20% down at 4.03%, principal and interest runs about $1,113 a month. Add roughly $484 for property taxes and $194 for insurance and you are near $1,790 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 51 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Downtown Austin (78701). Rainey Street, 6th Street, Congress Ave. Known for high-rise condos, walkable nightlife. It fits professionals who want urban living without a commute, and runs $350K condos to $1M+ penthouses.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Downtown Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/downtown-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, January 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 | MLK Day March, UT campus to Huston-Tillotson, east | The march runs from campus east along MLK. Central and east street closures for the morning, and a poor Monday for showings along the route. |
What is coming next
CodeNEXT's third draft in February. Appraisal notices in April, and the April 30 homestead exemption deadline.
Common questions
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 51 days in January 2018. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 54 in December 2017.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
It is a reasonable one. At 3.3 months of supply neither side has a decisive edge, which means the outcome depends more on the specific house and your specific terms than on the market. That is the normal condition, and Austin has not spent much of the last decade in it.
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers January 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.