The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 4.33% in February 2018, the highest monthly average in this series so far. The median sale was $298,500, up 2.9% year over year. Homes took a median of 54 days to sell. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, February 2018
| Metric | February 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $298,500 (+2.9% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $145 (+2.5% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,947 (+7.6% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,699 |
| Active inventory | 5,367 (+4.7% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.8 |
| Median days on market | 54 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.2% |
| Sold above asking | 16.9% |
| Listings with a price cut | 23.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.33% |
Read the Zoning Before You Read the Listing
CodeNEXT draft three arrived February 12. Three drafts in thirteen months is not usually a sign of consensus. What a buyer should take from it: check the current zoning on any lot you are serious about, because the entitlement, SF-3, SF-2, MF-2, is doing more work on the price than the finishes are.
What changed since January 2018
The median rose $8,151 from January 2018, a 2.8% move. Time on market lengthened by 3 days, to 54. Active inventory grew by 197 listings, to 5,367. The share of homes selling over asking gained 1.5 points, to 16.9%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| February 2018 | January 2018 | February 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $298,500 | $290,349 | $290,000 | range $255,626–$314,500 |
| Median days on market | 54 | 51 | 44 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 5,367 | 5,170 | 5,127 | range 4,660–7,915 |
| Months of supply | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 17% | 15% | 20% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.33% | 4.03% | 4.17% | highest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where February 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.8 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.2% of asking, so roughly 1.8% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $298,500 with 20% down at 4.33%, principal and interest runs about $1,186 a month. Add roughly $498 for property taxes and $199 for insurance and you are near $1,882 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 54 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
East Austin (78702). Holly, Rosewood. Known for creative, eclectic, strong appreciation. It fits buyers who want character and culture.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, East Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/east-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, February 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-February | Austin Marathon, Downtown / central | Road closures across downtown and central Austin from before dawn until early afternoon. The one Sunday of the year not to schedule a central open house. |
What is coming next
SXSW in March, and the spring listing wave that starts before it.
Common questions
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In February 2018, a market tilted to sellers, 2.8 months of supply, with 17% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.3 in January 2016.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 54 days in February 2018. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 54 in December 2017.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers February 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.