In January 2017, 19% of the homes that closed across the Austin metro went for over list. Homes took a median of 44 days to sell, the longest stretch in this series so far. The median sale was $280,199, up 9.6% year over year. Active inventory stood at 4,847 listings, up 4.0% year over year. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, January 2017
| Metric | January 2017 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $280,199 (+9.6% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $140 (+8.0% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,480 (+5.9% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,247 |
| Active inventory | 4,847 (+4.0% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.3 |
| Median days on market | 44 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.0% |
| Sold above asking | 19.3% |
| Listings with a price cut | 21.9% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.15% |
CodeNEXT, Explained for People Who Just Want a House
CodeNEXT's first draft came out in late January. The first serious attempt to rewrite Austin's 1984 land development code. The fight it started shows no sign of resolving quickly. The short version for a buyer: the code determines whether the lot you are considering can ever hold a second unit, and that option has value whether or not you exercise it.
What changed since December 2016
The median fell $9,801 from December 2016, a 3.4% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 44. Active inventory shrank by 140 listings, to 4,847. The share of homes selling over asking gained 1.5 points, to 19.3%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| January 2017 | December 2016 | January 2016 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $280,199 | $290,000 | $255,626 | range $255,626–$295,250 |
| Median days on market | 44 | 40 | 34 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Active inventory | 4,847 | 4,987 | 4,660 | range 4,660–6,891 |
| Months of supply | 3.3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 19% | 18% | 19% | range 17%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.15% | 4.2% | 3.87% | range 3.44%–4.2% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where January 2017 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 3.3 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.0% of asking, so roughly 2.0% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $280,199 with 20% down at 4.15%, principal and interest runs about $1,090 a month. Add roughly $467 for property taxes and $187 for insurance and you are near $1,743 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 44 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Crestview & Brentwood (78756 & 78757). Little Deli, Brentwood Social House, Crestview Station. Known for old-Austin feel, hidden gems. It fits buyers who want a neighborhood that still feels like old Austin.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Crestview & Brentwood does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/crestview-brentwood/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, January 2017
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16 | MLK Day March, UT campus to Huston-Tillotson, east | The march runs from campus east along MLK. Central and east street closures for the morning, and a poor Monday for showings along the route. |
What is coming next
The 85th Legislature is in session through May, with a property tax rollback-rate bill and a ride-hailing preemption bill both live. Either one changes something about owning a house here.
Common questions
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In January 2017, a market tilted to sellers, 3.3 months of supply, with 19% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.3 in January 2016.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 44 days in January 2017. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 44 in January 2017.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers January 2017; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.