The Austin housing market in September 2026 split in two. The metro median sale price held at $421,000, up 1.4% from a year earlier, but closed sales fell 14.8% to 2,223 as the 30-year fixed averaged 6.86%. With 5.4 months of supply and homes closing at 92.7% of original list, it was still a buyer's market. Here is what the numbers mean if you are buying or selling in Austin or the suburbs, Round Rock included.
Austin housing market September 2026: the numbers
| Metric | September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $421,000 (+1.4% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,223 (-14.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,546 |
| Active inventory | 13,465 (-3.4% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 5.4 |
| Pending sales | 2,313 (-1.8% YoY) |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 92.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 6.86% |
Sales Drop as Rates Rise, and Austin mortgage rates are why
Closed sales fell 14.8% from September 2025 to 2,223, double the 7.3% decline in August, while the metro median held at $421,000, up 1.4%. Pending sales slipped only 1.8% to 2,313 and new listings rose 2.8% to 3,546, so buyers did not disappear; fewer of them made it to the closing table. Homes sold for 92.7% of original list on average, up from 91.4% a year earlier. Vaike O’Grady, research advisor at Unlock MLS, said in the October 13 report that for many buyers the biggest factor is not the price of the home but what that price means for the monthly payment at today’s rates. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.86% for the month, up from 6.67% in August.
What changed since August 2026
The median rose $9,000 from August 2026, a 2.2% move. Active inventory shrank by 211 listings, to 13,465. Unlock MLS did not publish a days on market figure with the September report, so that line is missing from this month's tables.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Austin home prices against the cycle
| September 2026 | August 2026 | September 2025 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $421,000 | $412,000 | $425,000 | range $255,626 to $565,000 |
| Active inventory | 13,465 | 13,676 | 12,838 | range 2,660 to 14,647 |
| Months of supply | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | range 0.9 to 6.5 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 6.86% | 6.67% | 6.35% | range 2.68% to 7.62% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where September 2026 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 5.4 months of supply this is a buyer's market, and time is the negotiating position. A listing that has sat for ninety days belongs to a seller whose plan is not working. That is worth more than any clever offer strategy.
The average home sold for 92.7% of asking, so roughly 7.3% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $421,000 with 20% down at 6.86%, principal and interest runs about $2,209 a month. Add roughly $702 for property taxes and $281 for insurance and you are near $3,191 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead. Budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: with 13,465 active listings and buyers watching every rate move, you are competing against a lot of houses and a patient buyer. Price ahead of the market rather than chasing it down, and consider funding a rate buydown. At these rates it moves a buyer's monthly payment more than an equivalent price cut does.
Neighborhood in focus
Onion Creek (78747). Onion Creek Club, SH 45 corridor. Known for golf course living, Hill Country views, South Austin value. It fits golf lifestyle, Hill Country views, value in South Austin, and runs $400K to $900K.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal region. Onion Creek does not move in lockstep with Kyle, Leander or the Round Rock housing market (78664 and 78681), and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/onion-creek/, including what is wrong with it. For every month back to 2015 in one table, see the Austin housing market data page.
What's next in Austin, October and November 2026
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | Longhorns vs Florida: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | Home Saturday. I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
| Oct 22–25 | Formula 1 United States Grand Prix, Circuit of the Americas, southeast | Four days this year. A Thursday preview was added. Southeast Travis County and SH-130 congest; downtown hotel rates hit their annual high. |
| Oct 24 | Longhorns vs Ole Miss: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | Home Saturday. I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
| Late October | Austin Film Festival, Downtown theatres and hotels | Eight days across downtown venues. Hotel demand overlaps the Grand Prix weekend most years, which is when downtown rates peak. |
| Oct 31 | Longhorns vs Mississippi State: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | Home Saturday. I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
| Early to mid-November | Texas Book Festival, Texas Capitol grounds | Congress Avenue and the Capitol grounds close for the weekend. Central showings north of the river lose an afternoon. |
| Nov 7 | Longhorns at Missouri, away | Away. No local impact beyond a quiet Saturday. |
| Nov 14 | Longhorns at LSU, away | Away. No local impact beyond a quiet Saturday. |
| Nov 21 | Longhorns vs Arkansas: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | Home Saturday. I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
| Nov 26 | ThunderCloud Subs Turkey Trot, Downtown / Long Center | Thanksgiving morning, tens of thousands of runners downtown. Nobody is buying a house that week, which is exactly why the last week of November is worth a serious offer. |
| Nov 27 | Longhorns at Texas A&M, away | Away. No local impact beyond a quiet Saturday. |
Austin housing market forecast: what is coming next
Rates have not let up. The Freddie Mac survey read 7.03% the week of September 24, 7.28% on October 1 and 7.40% on October 8, three straight weeks above 7%, so the contracts being written now carry bigger payments than the ones that closed in September. Travis County property tax bills arrive this month and are due by January 31. A buyer who still qualifies at 7% is shopping against 13,465 active listings and less competition than in the spring.
Common questions
Austin housing market FAQ, answered with the September 2026 numbers.
Is Austin a buyer's or seller's market right now?
It leans toward buyers. The Austin metro sat at 5.4 months of supply in September 2026 with 13,465 active listings, close to the six month mark where a market is usually called a buyer's market. The average home closed at 92.7% of its original list price, so buyers were negotiating and winning.
Is the Austin housing market crashing?
No. The metro median was $421,000 in September 2026, up 1.4% from a year earlier and 25.5% below the April 2022 peak, so the correction already happened. What fell hard was sales volume, down 14.8%, and that is a rate story, not a price collapse.
Should I buy a house in Austin now?
If you plan to stay five years or more and the payment works at today's rates, this is the better half of the cycle to buy in. You have selection, time to inspect, and room to negotiate on price, repairs or a seller funded rate buydown. If you would need rates to fall to afford the payment, wait and keep watching.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Essentially flat, +1.4% year over year as of September 2026. Against the April 2022 peak of $565,000, the metro median is 25.5% lower. Which number matters to you depends on when you bought.
What is the median home price in Austin?
The median sale across the Austin metro in September 2026 was $421,000, all property types. The City of Austin alone ran higher, at a median of $570,958, and the suburbs run lower, so the metro figure is a midpoint and not a quote for any one ZIP.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers September 2026; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Unlock MLS (ACTRIS) via the Austin Board of REALTORS® monthly market report, all property types, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA. Note that most posts in this series use a single-family series from the Redfin Data Center; the basis differs, so month-to-month comparisons against earlier posts are not apples to apples. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed survey. Payment and tax figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.