Half the homes that sold across the Austin metro in November 2019 went for more than $305,000, and half for less, flat against a year earlier at +1.7%. Active inventory stood at 5,939 listings, down 14.1% year over year. The share selling above asking was 19%. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, November 2019
| Metric | November 2019 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $305,000 (+1.7% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $154 (+4.1% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,445 (+11.5% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,121 |
| Active inventory | 5,939 (-14.1% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.4 |
| Median days on market | 41 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.5% |
| Sold above asking | 19.1% |
| Listings with a price cut | 23.1% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.7% |
Why November and December Are the Best Months to Buy
The pattern repeats every year and almost nobody uses it. November and December have the year's lowest inventory but also its lowest competition, and the sellers still listed in December have a reason to be. Days on market ran 41 to 43 in those months against 22 in May.
What changed since October 2019
The median fell $21,357 from October 2019, a 6.5% move. Time on market lengthened by 3 days, to 41. Active inventory shrank by 630 listings, to 5,939. The share of homes selling over asking gained 0.1 points, to 19.1%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| November 2019 | October 2019 | November 2018 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $305,000 | $326,357 | $300,000 | range $255,626–$332,327 |
| Median days on market | 41 | 38 | 49 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 5,939 | 6,569 | 6,912 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | range 2.1–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 19% | 19% | 16% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.7% | 3.69% | 4.87% | range 3.44%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where November 2019 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.4 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed at 98.5% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $305,000 with 20% down at 3.7%, principal and interest runs about $1,123 a month. Add roughly $508 for property taxes and $203 for insurance and you are near $1,835 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 41 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Westlake (78746). Rollingwood, Lost Creek, Rob Roy. Known for eanes ISD, Hill Country views, luxury. It fits families prioritizing schools, and runs $800K to $5M+.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Westlake does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/westlake/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, November 2019
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | Formula 1 United States Grand Prix, Circuit of the Americas, southeast | Race day, unusually in November this year. Southeast Travis County and SH-130 congest from Friday. |
| Early to mid-November | Texas Book Festival, Texas Capitol grounds | Congress Avenue and the Capitol grounds close for the weekend. Central showings north of the river lose an afternoon. |
| Nov 28 | ThunderCloud Subs Turkey Trot, Downtown / Long Center | Thanksgiving morning, tens of thousands of runners downtown. Nobody is buying a house that week, which is exactly why the last week of November is worth a serious offer. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
Land development code first reading December 11. And the annual April 30 homestead exemption deadline for anyone who closed this year.
Common questions
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $305,000 with 20% down at 3.7%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $1,835 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $73,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in November 2019 was $305,000. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In November 2019, a seller's market, 2.4 months of supply, with 19% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.8 in January 2019.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers November 2019; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.