In November 2021, 46% of the homes that closed across the Austin metro went for over list. Homes took a median of 36 days to sell. Active inventory stood at 4,698 listings, up 22.6% year over year. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, November 2021
| Metric | November 2021 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $478,250 (+30.0% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $243 (+37.5% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,822 (-5.9% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,567 |
| Active inventory | 4,698 (+22.6% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.7 |
| Median days on market | 36 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 101.4% |
| Sold above asking | 46.2% |
| Listings with a price cut | 17.4% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.07% |
Samsung Picks Taylor
Samsung announced a $17 billion semiconductor fabrication plant in Taylor on November 23, at the time the largest foreign direct investment in Texas history. Taylor is thirty-five miles northeast of downtown Austin and had been, until that morning, a small Williamson County town people drove through.
What changed since October 2021
The median rose $18,250 from October 2021, a 4.0% move. Time on market lengthened by 2 days, to 36. Active inventory shrank by 826 listings, to 4,698. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 4.9 points, to 46.2%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| November 2021 | October 2021 | November 2020 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $478,250 | $460,000 | $368,000 | range $255,626–$495,000 |
| Median days on market | 36 | 34 | 35 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 4,698 | 5,524 | 3,831 | range 2,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.7 | 2 | 1.3 | range 0.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 46% | 51% | 40% | range 14%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.07% | 3.07% | 2.77% | range 2.68%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where November 2021 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
1.7 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed above asking, at 101.4% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.
The payment math. At $478,250 with 20% down at 3.07%, principal and interest runs about $1,628 a month. Add roughly $797 for property taxes and $319 for insurance and you are near $2,743 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 36 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
East Austin (78702). Holly, Rosewood. Known for creative, eclectic, strong appreciation. It fits buyers who want character and culture.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, East Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/east-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, November 2021
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Early to mid-November | Texas Book Festival, Texas Capitol grounds | Congress Avenue and the Capitol grounds close for the weekend. Central showings north of the river lose an afternoon. |
| Nov 25 | ThunderCloud Subs Turkey Trot, Downtown / Long Center | Thanksgiving morning, tens of thousands of runners downtown. Nobody is buying a house that week, which is exactly why the last week of November is worth a serious offer. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
Giga Texas opening in the spring. And a Federal Reserve that has started signaling rate increases for 2022, which is the single most important thing on this list.
Common questions
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 36 days in November 2021. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 58 in January 2019.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
Depends entirely on your timeline. At 1.7 months of supply you are competing, paying up, and giving up contingencies. If you need to be in a house this year, you buy and you accept the terms. If you can wait, understand that you are paying a premium for urgency.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers November 2021; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.