At 1.1 months of supply, December 2021 was an extreme seller's market across the Austin metro. Active inventory stood at 3,475 listings, up 21.1% year over year. The share selling above asking was 46%.
Austin market statistics, December 2021
| Metric | December 2021 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $480,000 (+29.7% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $245 (+35.2% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,119 (-3.0% YoY) |
| New listings | 1,811 |
| Active inventory | 3,475 (+21.1% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.1 |
| Median days on market | 35 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 101.6% |
| Sold above asking | 46.4% |
| Listings with a price cut | 12.4% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.1% |
2021 in Review, and the Rate Risk Nobody Is Pricing
The year closed with the median at $480,000, up nearly 30%, after a year in which as many as three of every four homes sold above list. Mortgage rates ended near 3.1%. The Fed had signaled multiple 2022 increases, and almost nobody in this market was pricing that in.
What changed since November 2021
The median rose $1,750 from November 2021, a 0.4% move. Time on market shortened by 1 days, to 35. Active inventory shrank by 1,223 listings, to 3,475. The share of homes selling over asking gained 0.2 points, to 46.4%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| December 2021 | November 2021 | December 2020 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $480,000 | $478,250 | $370,000 | range $255,626–$495,000 |
| Median days on market | 35 | 36 | 35 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 3,475 | 4,698 | 2,870 | range 2,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | range 0.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 46% | 46% | 40% | range 14%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.1% | 3.07% | 2.68% | range 2.68%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where December 2021 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.1 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
The average sale closed above asking, at 101.6% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.
The payment math. At $480,000 with 20% down at 3.1%, principal and interest runs about $1,640 a month. Add roughly $800 for property taxes and $320 for insurance and you are near $2,760 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 35 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
South Austin (78704). Travis Heights, Bouldin Creek, Zilker, Barton Hills. Known for barton Springs, Zilker, tight inventory. It fits buyers who want walkability to South Congress and the park.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, December 2021
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Mid to late December | Armadillo Christmas Bazaar, Palmer Events Center | Runs to Christmas Eve at the Palmer. Adds to the Zilker-area congestion the Trail of Lights is already causing. |
| Mid-December | Trail of Lights, Zilker Park | Roughly two weeks of nightly closures around Zilker. Barton Springs Road and the 78704 approaches are slow every evening it runs. |
What is coming next
Rate hikes starting in March. Giga Texas opening in April. If you bought in 2021, file your homestead exemption by April 30. The 10% cap matters more after a 30% year than it ever has.
Common questions
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in December 2021 was $480,000. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In December 2021, an extreme seller's market, 1.1 months of supply, with 46% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 0.9 months in December 2020 to 3.8 in January 2019.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 35 days in December 2021. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 58 in January 2019.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers December 2021; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.