$302,595 is what the median Austin-area house sold for in December 2018, down 2.1% year over year. Active inventory stood at 5,992 listings, up 8.6% year over year. The 30-year fixed averaged 4.64% that month. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, December 2018
| Metric | December 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $302,595 (-2.1% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $149 (+3.1% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,348 (-9.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 1,494 |
| Active inventory | 5,992 (+8.6% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.6 |
| Median days on market | 53 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.9% |
| Sold above asking | 13.9% |
| Listings with a price cut | 18.6% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.64% |
Apple Buys 133 Acres on Parmer Lane
Apple announced a $1 billion, 133-acre campus in north Austin on December 13, with capacity for up to 15,000 employees, on Parmer Lane near its existing site. Losing Amazon and landing Apple inside of a month is a reasonable summary of Austin in this era. Mortgage rates also peaked near 4.9% in November before falling back.
What changed since November 2018
The median rose $2,595 from November 2018, a 0.9% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 53. Active inventory shrank by 920 listings, to 5,992. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.6 points, to 13.9%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| December 2018 | November 2018 | December 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $302,595 | $300,000 | $309,000 | range $255,626–$325,000 |
| Median days on market | 53 | 49 | 54 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 5,992 | 6,912 | 5,517 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | range 2.1–3.4 |
| Sold above asking | 14% | 16% | 14% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.64% | 4.87% | 3.95% | range 3.44%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where December 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.6 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 97.9% of asking, so roughly 2.1% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $302,595 with 20% down at 4.64%, principal and interest runs about $1,247 a month. Add roughly $504 for property taxes and $202 for insurance and you are near $1,953 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 53 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
South Austin (78704). Travis Heights, Bouldin Creek, Zilker, Barton Hills. Known for barton Springs, Zilker, tight inventory. It fits buyers who want walkability to South Congress and the park.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, December 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Mid to late December | Armadillo Christmas Bazaar, Palmer Events Center | Runs to Christmas Eve at the Palmer. Adds to the Zilker-area congestion the Trail of Lights is already causing. |
| Mid-December | Trail of Lights, Zilker Park | Roughly two weeks of nightly closures around Zilker. Barton Springs Road and the 78704 approaches are slow every evening it runs. |
What is coming next
The 86th Legislature in January, with a property tax rollback-rate bill and a school finance rewrite both expected. Either one changes your tax bill.
Common questions
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Down 2.1% year over year as of December 2018. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers December 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.