The Austin metro carried 4.2 months of supply in July 2022, a roughly balanced market. Closed volume was 2,454 homes, down 29.0% year over year. The median sat 7.0% below the April 2022 peak of $565,000. The median sale was $525,515, up 6.2% year over year.
Austin market statistics, July 2022
| Metric | July 2022 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $525,515 (+6.2% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $263 (+10.5% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,454 (-29.0% YoY) |
| New listings | 4,389 |
| Active inventory | 10,347 (+87.9% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 4.2 |
| Median days on market | 34 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 100.1% |
| Sold above asking | 37.3% |
| Listings with a price cut | 42.3% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 5.41% |
The Month Buyers Got Their Leverage Back
Inventory crossed 10,000 and months of supply hit 4.2. The first genuinely balanced-to-buyer reading since 2011. The above-list share collapsed from 54% to 37% in one month. If you had been waiting since 2020 for leverage, this was the month it arrived.
What changed since June 2022
The median fell $19,485 from June 2022, a 3.6% move. Time on market lengthened by 6 days, to 34. Active inventory grew by 1,469 listings, to 10,347. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 17.1 points, to 37.3%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| July 2022 | June 2022 | July 2021 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $525,515 | $545,000 | $495,000 | range $255,626–$565,000 |
| Median days on market | 34 | 28 | 28 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 10,347 | 8,878 | 5,507 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Months of supply | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Sold above asking | 37% | 54% | 72% | range 14%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 5.41% | 5.52% | 2.87% | range 2.68%–5.52% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where July 2022 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
4.2 months of supply is close to balance. You can inspect properly, ask for repairs, and walk away from a house that does not work, three things that were not available to Austin buyers between 2020 and mid-2022.
The average sale closed at 100.1% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $525,515 with 20% down at 5.41%, principal and interest runs about $2,363 a month. Add roughly $876 for property taxes and $350 for insurance and you are near $3,590 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 34 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Downtown Austin (78701). Rainey Street, 6th Street, Congress Ave. Known for high-rise condos, walkable nightlife. It fits professionals who want urban living without a commute, and runs $350K condos to $1M+ penthouses.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Downtown Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/downtown-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, July 2022
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4 | Fourth of July Concert and Fireworks, Auditorium Shores / Lady Bird Lake | The Austin Symphony on Auditorium Shores with fireworks over the lake. Downtown and the south shore close from late afternoon. |
What is coming next
More rate increases. Sellers who listed in the spring starting to cut price in earnest.
Common questions
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in July 2022 was $525,515. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In July 2022, a roughly balanced market, 4.2 months of supply, with 37% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 0.9 months in December 2020 to 4.2 in July 2022.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers July 2022; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.