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Austin Housing Market Report: July 2021, The First Crack in the Frenzy

Mike Vilece · August 15, 2021 · 5 min read

The median single-family home in the Austin metro sold for $495,000 in July 2021, up 37.9% year over year. Closed volume was 3,456 homes, down 13.5% year over year. The share selling above asking was 72%. Homes took a median of 28 days to sell. That made it a seller's market.

Austin market statistics, July 2021

Metric July 2021
Median sale price $495,000 (+37.9% YoY)
Median price per sq ft $238 (+42.5% YoY)
Homes sold 3,456 (-13.5% YoY)
New listings 4,467
Active inventory 5,507 (+13.1% YoY)
Months of supply 1.6
Median days on market 28
Sale-to-list ratio 106.8%
Sold above asking 72.4%
Listings with a price cut 20.5%
30-year fixed rate (avg) 2.87%

The First Crack in the Frenzy

Inventory rose to 5,507 from 4,174 in May, the first meaningful build in eighteen months, and the above-list share slipped to 72%. Still an extraordinary seller's market, but the direction of supply changed this month. Direction changes before level does, which is why I watch inventory more closely than price.

What changed since June 2021

The median rose $5,000 from June 2021, a 1.0% move. Time on market lengthened by 1 days, to 28. Active inventory grew by 747 listings, to 5,507. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.7 points, to 72.4%.

One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.

Where this month sits in the cycle

July 2021 June 2021 July 2020 Since Oct 2016
Median sale price $495,000 $490,000 $359,000 highest since Oct 2016
Median days on market 28 27 18 range 16–58
Active inventory 5,507 4,760 4,868 range 2,660–7,969
Months of supply 1.6 1.3 1.2 range 0.9–3.8
Sold above asking 72% 74% 31% range 14%–75%
30-year fixed rate 2.87% 2.98% 3.02% range 2.68%–4.87%

The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where July 2021 falls against every month that came before it.

If you are buying in Austin right now

1.6 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.

The average sale closed above asking, at 106.8% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.

The payment math. At $495,000 with 20% down at 2.87%, principal and interest runs about $1,642 a month. Add roughly $825 for property taxes and $330 for insurance and you are near $2,797 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.

If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 28 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.

Neighborhood in focus

Crestview & Brentwood (78756 & 78757). Little Deli, Brentwood Social House, Crestview Station. Known for old-Austin feel, hidden gems. It fits buyers who want a neighborhood that still feels like old Austin.

The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Crestview & Brentwood does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/crestview-brentwood/, including what is wrong with it.

On in Austin, July 2021

When What Why it matters to a listing
Jul 4 Fourth of July Concert and Fireworks, Auditorium Shores / Lady Bird Lake The Austin Symphony on Auditorium Shores with fireworks over the lake. Downtown and the south shore close from late afternoon.

What is coming next

Waterloo Park and the Moody Amphitheater open in August after a decade of construction.

Common questions

I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?

Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.

How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?

At $495,000 with 20% down at 2.87%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $2,797 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $112,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.

When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?

October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.

What is the average home price in Austin?

The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in July 2021 was $495,000. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.


Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers July 2021; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.

Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.

Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.

Austin · Austin Housing Market · Market Data · July 2021

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