A house in the Austin metro took a median of 23 days to sell in July 2017. The median sale was $305,000, up 5.2% year over year. The share selling above asking was 21%. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.97% that month. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, July 2017
| Metric | July 2017 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $305,000 (+5.2% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $146 (+5.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,804 (+2.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,432 |
| Active inventory | 7,915 (+14.9% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.8 |
| Median days on market | 23 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.6% |
| Sold above asking | 21.4% |
| Listings with a price cut | 37.0% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.97% |
The Domain Effect on North Austin
The Domain kept pulling office tenants north, and the second-downtown thesis stopped being a pitch and started being a commute pattern. Buyers who work up there increasingly shop 78758, 78759 and Round Rock instead of trying to price into central Austin and drive against traffic.
What changed since June 2017
The median fell $9,500 from June 2017, a 3.0% move. Time on market lengthened by 1 days, to 23. Active inventory grew by 320 listings, to 7,915. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 3.1 points, to 21.4%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| July 2017 | June 2017 | July 2016 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $305,000 | $314,500 | $289,900 | range $255,626–$314,500 |
| Median days on market | 23 | 22 | 19 | range 16–44 |
| Active inventory | 7,915 | 7,595 | 6,891 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Months of supply | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 21% | 24% | 27% | range 17%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.97% | 3.9% | 3.44% | range 3.44%–4.2% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where July 2017 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.8 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average sale closed at 98.6% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $305,000 with 20% down at 3.97%, principal and interest runs about $1,161 a month. Add roughly $508 for property taxes and $203 for insurance and you are near $1,872 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 23 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Deep South Austin (78745). Cherry Creek, Garrison Park, Manchaca. Known for value, access, first-time buyers. It fits first-time buyers and young families.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Deep South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, July 2017
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4 | Fourth of July Concert and Fireworks, Auditorium Shores / Lady Bird Lake | The Austin Symphony on Auditorium Shores with fireworks over the lake. Downtown and the south shore close from late afternoon. |
What is coming next
CodeNEXT's second draft in September, and the fall slowdown that starts right after Labor Day.
Common questions
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 23 days in July 2017. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 44 in January 2017.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
It is a reasonable one. At 2.8 months of supply neither side has a decisive edge, which means the outcome depends more on the specific house and your specific terms than on the market. That is the normal condition, and Austin has not spent much of the last decade in it.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers July 2017; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.