In August 2017, 18% of Austin-area homes sold for more than the asking price. Active inventory stood at 7,750 listings, up 15.6% year over year. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.88% that month. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, August 2017
| Metric | August 2017 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $299,900 (+3.5% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $144 (+4.0% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,858 (-0.3% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,901 |
| Active inventory | 7,750 (+15.6% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.7 |
| Median days on market | 29 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.4% |
| Sold above asking | 18.3% |
| Listings with a price cut | 38.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.88% |
Harvey, and the Month Texas Started Reading Flood Maps
Hurricane Harvey made landfall August 25 and flooded Houston. Austin took in evacuees, and for months afterward the Central Texas market absorbed a wave of Houston families deciding not to go back. It is also the moment a lot of Texas buyers started actually reading flood maps.
What changed since July 2017
The median fell $5,100 from July 2017, a 1.7% move. Time on market lengthened by 6 days, to 29. Active inventory shrank by 165 listings, to 7,750. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 3.1 points, to 18.3%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| August 2017 | July 2017 | August 2016 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $299,900 | $305,000 | $289,700 | range $255,626–$314,500 |
| Median days on market | 29 | 23 | 23 | range 16–44 |
| Active inventory | 7,750 | 7,915 | 6,703 | range 4,660–7,915 |
| Months of supply | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 18% | 21% | 23% | range 17%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.88% | 3.97% | 3.44% | range 3.44%–4.2% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where August 2017 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.7 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.4% of asking, so roughly 1.6% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $299,900 with 20% down at 3.88%, principal and interest runs about $1,129 a month. Add roughly $500 for property taxes and $200 for insurance and you are near $1,829 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 29 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Westlake (78746). Rollingwood, Lost Creek, Rob Roy. Known for eanes ISD, Hill Country views, luxury. It fits families prioritizing schools, and runs $800K to $5M+.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Westlake does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/westlake/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, August 2017
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Late August | Bat Fest, Congress Avenue Bridge | The Congress Avenue Bridge closes for the evening. A reminder that August in Austin is the month buyers stop touring and start waiting for October. |
What is coming next
CodeNEXT draft two on September 15. If you are shopping anything near a creek, Shoal, Waller, Williamson, Onion, pull the FEMA map and the city's own flood tool before you write an offer, not after.
Common questions
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in August 2017 was $299,900. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In August 2017, a market tilted to sellers, 2.7 months of supply, with 18% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.3 in January 2016.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 29 days in August 2017. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 44 in January 2017.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers August 2017; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.