The median single-family home in the Austin metro sold for $370,500 in January 2021, up 20.3% year over year. Homes took a median of 35 days to sell. The 30-year fixed averaged 2.73% that month. Active inventory stood at 2,660 listings, down 47.2% year over year. That made it an extreme seller's market.
Austin market statistics, January 2021
| Metric | January 2021 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $370,500 (+20.3% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $184 (+18.8% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,061 (+16.0% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,356 |
| Active inventory | 2,660 (-47.2% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.3 |
| Median days on market | 35 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 102.2% |
| Sold above asking | 49.5% |
| Listings with a price cut | 6.8% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 2.73% |
How to Win a Bidding War in Austin
Half the homes sold in January went above list. In January. What was actually winning: waived appraisal contingencies with cash to cover the gap, option periods shortened to three or five days, leasebacks at no cost to the seller, and proof of funds attached to the offer. Price was table stakes, not the differentiator.
What changed since December 2020
The median rose $500 from December 2020, a 0.1% move. Time on market held flat, to 35. Active inventory shrank by 210 listings, to 2,660. The share of homes selling over asking gained 9.3 points, to 49.5%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| January 2021 | December 2020 | January 2020 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $370,500 | $370,000 | $308,000 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 35 | 35 | 48 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 2,660 | 2,870 | 5,037 | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| Months of supply | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.8 | range 0.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 50% | 40% | 17% | highest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 2.73% | 2.68% | 3.62% | range 2.68%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where January 2021 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.3 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
The average sale closed above asking, at 102.2% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.
The payment math. At $370,500 with 20% down at 2.73%, principal and interest runs about $1,207 a month. Add roughly $618 for property taxes and $247 for insurance and you are near $2,071 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 35 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Downtown Austin (78701). Rainey Street, 6th Street, Congress Ave. Known for high-rise condos, walkable nightlife. It fits professionals who want urban living without a commute, and runs $350K condos to $1M+ penthouses.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Downtown Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/downtown-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, January 2021
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| January 2021 | Public events, cancelled | Austin's public event calendar did not run in its usual form. Large gatherings were restricted from mid-March 2020, and the festivals, races and street closures that normally shape a month here were cancelled, moved online or held at reduced size. |
What is coming next
Proposition B on the May 1 ballot would reinstate the public camping ban. Spring, which at this inventory level is going to be ugly for buyers.
Common questions
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $370,500 with 20% down at 2.73%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $2,071 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $83,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers January 2021; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.