In February 2021, 59% of Austin-area homes sold for more than the asking price. The median sale was $400,000, up 22.3% year over year. The average sale closed at 105.7% of list. That made it an extreme seller's market.
Austin market statistics, February 2021
| Metric | February 2021 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $400,000 (+22.3% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $197 (+24.3% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,930 (-15.3% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,138 |
| Active inventory | 2,757 (-45.0% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.4 |
| Median days on market | 30 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 105.7% |
| Sold above asking | 58.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 4.1% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 2.81% |
Winter Storm Uri and What It Broke
Winter Storm Uri hit February 13 to 17. The state grid failed, hundreds of thousands of Austin households lost power for days in sub-freezing temperatures, and pipes burst across the city. Plumbers were booked into the summer. Every inspection for the next year included a question about freeze damage, and it should have.
What changed since January 2021
The median rose $29,500 from January 2021, a 8.0% move. Time on market shortened by 5 days, to 30. Active inventory grew by 97 listings, to 2,757. The share of homes selling over asking gained 9.1 points, to 58.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| February 2021 | January 2021 | February 2020 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $400,000 | $370,500 | $327,140 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 30 | 35 | 42 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 2,757 | 2,660 | 5,013 | range 2,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | range 0.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 59% | 50% | 25% | highest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 2.81% | 2.73% | 3.47% | range 2.68%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where February 2021 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.4 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
59% of homes sold above asking. Assume list price is a starting bid, and ask your agent what the last five comparable sales actually closed at versus what they were listed at.
The average sale closed above asking, at 105.7% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.
The payment math. At $400,000 with 20% down at 2.81%, principal and interest runs about $1,317 a month. Add roughly $667 for property taxes and $267 for insurance and you are near $2,250 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 30 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
East Austin (78702). Holly, Rosewood. Known for creative, eclectic, strong appreciation. It fits buyers who want character and culture.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, East Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/east-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, February 2021
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Public events, cancelled | Austin's public event calendar did not run in its usual form. Large gatherings were restricted from mid-March 2020, and the festivals, races and street closures that normally shape a month here were cancelled, moved online or held at reduced size. |
What is coming next
Repair backlogs through spring. The May 1 election. And an appraisal season arriving on top of a 22% year-over-year price increase.
Common questions
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 22.3% year over year as of February 2021. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers February 2021; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.