A house in the Austin metro took a median of 58 days to sell in January 2019, the longest stretch in this series so far. The share selling above asking was 14%. At 3.8 months of supply, it was a roughly balanced market. The average sale closed at 97.8% of list.
Austin market statistics, January 2019
| Metric | January 2019 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $296,999 (+2.3% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $148 (+3.8% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,570 (-1.0% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,457 |
| Active inventory | 5,911 (+14.3% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.8 |
| Median days on market | 58 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.8% |
| Sold above asking | 14.0% |
| Listings with a price cut | 25.0% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.46% |
Austin Gets a Soccer Team, and North Austin Gets an Anchor
Major League Soccer awarded Austin a franchise on January 15: Austin FC, the city's first major-league team, to begin play in 2021 at McKalla Place. Whatever you think of soccer, a stadium is an anchor, and north Austin around the Domain now has one.
What changed since December 2018
The median fell $5,596 from December 2018, a 1.8% move. Time on market lengthened by 5 days, to 58. Active inventory shrank by 81 listings, to 5,911. The share of homes selling over asking gained 0.1 points, to 14.0%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| January 2019 | December 2018 | January 2018 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $296,999 | $302,595 | $290,349 | range $255,626–$325,000 |
| Median days on market | 58 | 53 | 51 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Active inventory | 5,911 | 5,992 | 5,170 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 3.8 | 2.6 | 3.3 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Sold above asking | 14% | 14% | 15% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.46% | 4.64% | 4.03% | range 3.44%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where January 2019 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
3.8 months of supply is close to balance. You can inspect properly, ask for repairs, and walk away from a house that does not work. Use all three.
The average home sold for 97.8% of asking, so roughly 2.2% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $296,999 with 20% down at 4.46%, principal and interest runs about $1,198 a month. Add roughly $495 for property taxes and $198 for insurance and you are near $1,891 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 58 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Deep South Austin (78745). Cherry Creek, Garrison Park, Manchaca. Known for value, access, first-time buyers. It fits first-time buyers and young families.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Deep South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, January 2019
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | MLK Day March, UT campus to Huston-Tillotson, east | The march runs from campus east along MLK. Central and east street closures for the morning, and a poor Monday for showings along the route. |
What is coming next
The Legislature is in session through May. Senate Bill 2 would cut the property tax rollback rate to 3.5%, and House Bill 3 would rewrite school finance. Both are live.
Common questions
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
It is a reasonable one. At 3.8 months of supply neither side has a decisive edge, which means the outcome depends more on the specific house and your specific terms than on the market. That is the normal condition, and Austin has not spent much of the last decade in it.
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 2.3% year over year as of January 2019. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers January 2019; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.