The average Austin-area sale closed at 108.2% of asking in March 2021. The median sale was $432,000, up 30.9% year over year. Homes took a median of 27 days to sell. That made it an extreme seller's market.
Austin market statistics, March 2021
| Metric | March 2021 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $432,000 (+30.9% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $208 (+31.2% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,944 (+3.9% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,544 |
| Active inventory | 3,283 (-41.3% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.1 |
| Median days on market | 27 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 108.2% |
| Sold above asking | 64.2% |
| Listings with a price cut | 7.4% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.08% |
Waiving Contingencies, and What It Actually Risks
Sixty-four percent of March sales closed above list. Buyers were waiving inspections and appraisal contingencies to compete. The honest version of that advice: waiving the appraisal contingency means you owe the gap in cash if the appraisal comes in low, and waiving inspection means you own the foundation problem you did not know about. Some of that risk was worth taking. Not all of it was.
What changed since February 2021
The median rose $32,000 from February 2021, a 8.0% move. Time on market shortened by 3 days, to 27. Active inventory grew by 526 listings, to 3,283. The share of homes selling over asking gained 5.6 points, to 64.2%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| March 2021 | February 2021 | March 2020 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $432,000 | $400,000 | $330,000 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 27 | 30 | 24 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 3,283 | 2,757 | 5,590 | range 2,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2 | range 0.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 64% | 59% | 29% | highest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.08% | 2.81% | 3.45% | range 2.68%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where March 2021 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.1 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
64% of homes sold above asking. Assume list price is a starting bid, and ask your agent what the last five comparable sales actually closed at versus what they were listed at.
The average sale closed above asking, at 108.2% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.
The payment math. At $432,000 with 20% down at 3.08%, principal and interest runs about $1,472 a month. Add roughly $720 for property taxes and $288 for insurance and you are near $2,480 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 27 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
South Austin (78704). Travis Heights, Bouldin Creek, Zilker, Barton Hills. Known for barton Springs, Zilker, tight inventory. It fits buyers who want walkability to South Congress and the park.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, March 2021
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16–20 | SXSW, Downtown / Convention Center | Online only this year. No street closures, and none of the usual downtown disruption. |
What is coming next
The May 1 election on Proposition B. Appraisal notices, which after a 30% year are going to be memorable.
Common questions
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
Depends entirely on your timeline. At 1.1 months of supply you are competing, paying up, and giving up contingencies. If you need to be in a house this year, you buy and you accept the terms. If you can wait, understand that you are paying a premium for urgency.
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 30.9% year over year as of March 2021. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers March 2021; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.