The median Austin-area listing spent 33 days on the market in March 2018. The median sale was $302,500, flat against a year earlier at +1.2%. Active inventory stood at 6,012 listings, up 1.1% year over year.
Austin market statistics, March 2018
| Metric | March 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $302,500 (+1.2% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $149 (+3.5% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,647 (+10.7% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,720 |
| Active inventory | 6,012 (+1.1% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.3 |
| Median days on market | 33 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.4% |
| Sold above asking | 20.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 24.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.44% |
Appraisal Season and the 10% Cap
Appraisal notices start hitting in April, and Travis County had been running hot. The mechanic worth understanding: your taxable value is capped at a 10% annual increase only if you have a homestead exemption on file. Without it, there is no cap, and the bill follows the market straight up.
What changed since February 2018
The median rose $4,000 from February 2018, a 1.3% move. Time on market shortened by 21 days, to 33. Active inventory grew by 645 listings, to 6,012. The share of homes selling over asking gained 3.8 points, to 20.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| March 2018 | February 2018 | March 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $302,500 | $298,500 | $299,000 | range $255,626–$314,500 |
| Median days on market | 33 | 54 | 24 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 6,012 | 5,367 | 5,946 | range 4,660–7,915 |
| Months of supply | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 21% | 17% | 23% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.44% | 4.33% | 4.2% | highest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where March 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.3 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average home sold for 98.4% of asking, so roughly 1.6% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $302,500 with 20% down at 4.44%, principal and interest runs about $1,218 a month. Add roughly $504 for property taxes and $202 for insurance and you are near $1,923 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 33 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
South Austin (78704). Travis Heights, Bouldin Creek, Zilker, Barton Hills. Known for barton Springs, Zilker, tight inventory. It fits buyers who want walkability to South Congress and the park.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, March 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Early March | Zilker Kite Festival, Zilker Park | Zilker parking is gone by mid-morning and Barton Springs Road backs up. A Sunday that costs you traffic in 78704 and nowhere else. |
| Mar 9–18 | SXSW, Downtown / Convention Center | The hardest week of the year to show a downtown property. Central traffic is unusable and short-term rentals price like hotels. |
What is coming next
Homestead exemption deadline April 30. CodeNEXT heading to Council. And the spring peak, which in Austin means April, not June.
Common questions
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in March 2018 was $302,500. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In March 2018, a seller's market, 2.3 months of supply, with 21% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.3 in January 2016.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers March 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.