The median Austin-area listing spent 72 days on the market in December 2022, the longest stretch in this series so far. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.36% that month. Closed volume was 2,317 homes, down 25.7% year over year.
Austin market statistics, December 2022
| Metric | December 2022 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $458,845 (-4.4% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $224 (-8.4% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,317 (-25.7% YoY) |
| New listings | 1,451 |
| Active inventory | 8,135 (+134.1% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.5 |
| Median days on market | 72 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 96.0% |
| Sold above asking | 11.4% |
| Listings with a price cut | 27.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 6.36% |
2022 in Review: Peak to Correction in Eight Months
The year opened with 48% of homes selling above list and closed with 11%. The median peaked at $565,000 in April and ended at $458,845, down about 19% in eight months. Nothing about Austin changed. The cost of money changed.
What changed since November 2022
The median fell $16,155 from November 2022, a 3.4% move. Time on market lengthened by 11 days, to 72. Active inventory shrank by 1,257 listings, to 8,135. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.4 points, to 11.4%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| December 2022 | November 2022 | December 2021 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $458,845 | $475,000 | $480,000 | range $255,626–$565,000 |
| Median days on market | 72 | 61 | 35 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Active inventory | 8,135 | 9,392 | 3,475 | range 2,660–10,647 |
| Months of supply | 3.5 | 5 | 1.1 | range 0.9–5.1 |
| Sold above asking | 11% | 13% | 46% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 6.36% | 6.8% | 3.1% | range 2.68%–6.9% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where December 2022 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
3.5 months of supply is close to balance. You can inspect properly, ask for repairs, and walk away from a house that does not work, three things that were not available to Austin buyers between 2020 and mid-2022.
The average home sold for 96.0% of asking, so roughly 4.0% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $458,845 with 20% down at 6.36%, principal and interest runs about $2,286 a month. Add roughly $765 for property taxes and $306 for insurance and you are near $3,357 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 72 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Hyde Park (78751). North Loop, North University. Known for craftsman bungalows, established. It fits buyers who want an established neighborhood with long-term value.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Hyde Park does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/hyde-park/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, December 2022
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Mid to late December | Armadillo Christmas Bazaar, Palmer Events Center | Runs to Christmas Eve at the Palmer. Adds to the Zilker-area congestion the Trail of Lights is already causing. |
| Mid-December | Trail of Lights, Zilker Park | Roughly two weeks of nightly closures around Zilker. Barton Springs Road and the 78704 approaches are slow every evening it runs. |
What is coming next
The Legislature in January with property tax relief on the table. And the April 30 homestead exemption deadline, which after this year matters for a different reason: a lower assessment is easier to argue when sales are actually falling.
Common questions
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In December 2022, a roughly balanced market, 3.5 months of supply, with 11% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 0.9 months in December 2020 to 5.1 in October 2022.
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Down 4.4% year over year as of December 2022. Against the April 2022 peak of $565,000, the metro median is 18.8% lower. Which number matters to you depends on when you bought.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers December 2022; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.