The Austin metro carried 5.4 months of supply in January 2023, a buyer's market. Active inventory stood at 8,032 listings, up 156.9% year over year. The median sat 19.8% below the April 2022 peak of $565,000. The median sale was $452,883, down 6.8% year over year.
Austin market statistics, January 2023
| Metric | January 2023 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $452,883 (-6.8% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $223 (-8.4% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,474 (-24.6% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,320 |
| Active inventory | 8,032 (+156.9% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 5.4 |
| Median days on market | 84 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 96.2% |
| Sold above asking | 9.8% |
| Listings with a price cut | 36.6% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 6.27% |
Is the Austin Housing Market Crashing?
Days on market hit 84, the longest since 2011, and the median was down 6.8% year over year. The question I got most that month was whether Austin was crashing. The honest answer: prices were down about 20% from an unsustainable peak and were still 48% above where they were in January 2020. Those are both true and they mean different things depending on when you bought.
What changed since December 2022
The median fell $5,962 from December 2022, a 1.3% move. Time on market lengthened by 12 days, to 84. Active inventory shrank by 103 listings, to 8,032. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.6 points, to 9.8%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| January 2023 | December 2022 | January 2022 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $452,883 | $458,845 | $485,990 | range $255,626–$565,000 |
| Median days on market | 84 | 72 | 35 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Active inventory | 8,032 | 8,135 | 3,127 | range 2,660–10,647 |
| Months of supply | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.6 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Sold above asking | 10% | 11% | 48% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 6.27% | 6.36% | 3.45% | range 2.68%–6.9% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where January 2023 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 5.4 months of supply this is a buyer's market, and 84 median days on market is the negotiating position. A listing that is ninety days old belongs to a seller whose plan is not working. That is worth more than any clever offer strategy.
The average home sold for 96.2% of asking, so roughly 3.8% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $452,883 with 20% down at 6.27%, principal and interest runs about $2,235 a month. Add roughly $755 for property taxes and $302 for insurance and you are near $3,292 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: with 8,032 active listings and 84 median days on market, you are competing against a lot of houses and a patient buyer. Price ahead of the market rather than chasing it down, and consider funding a rate buydown, at these rates it moves a buyer's monthly payment more than an equivalent price cut does.
Neighborhood in focus
Crestview & Brentwood (78756 & 78757). Little Deli, Brentwood Social House, Crestview Station. Known for old-Austin feel, hidden gems. It fits buyers who want a neighborhood that still feels like old Austin.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Crestview & Brentwood does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/crestview-brentwood/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, January 2023
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16 | MLK Day March, UT campus to Huston-Tillotson, east | The march runs from campus east along MLK. Central and east street closures for the morning, and a poor Monday for showings along the route. |
What is coming next
The Legislature's property tax package. And a spring market that will tell us whether the correction has a floor.
Common questions
Is the Austin housing market going to crash?
It already corrected. The metro median is 19.8% below the April 2022 peak, which is a larger drawdown than most US metros saw in this cycle, because Austin's run-up was larger. What is not present is the 2008 setup: lending standards are tight, most owners hold fixed-rate mortgages well below current rates, and Central Texas is still adding jobs and people. A slow market and a crashing one look different, and this is the first one.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
For a buyer with a five-year-plus horizon, this is the better half of the cycle. 84 days on market and 5.4 months of supply means you can inspect, negotiate, and walk. The people who bought in Austin's soft stretches did better than the people who bought in its frenzies, and they had a much less unpleasant time doing it.
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers January 2023; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.