There were 7,969 homes on the market across the Austin metro in August 2018, more than any month in this series so far. The share selling above asking was 18%. The 30-year fixed averaged 4.55% that month.
Austin market statistics, August 2018
| Metric | August 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $321,000 (+7.0% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $153 (+5.8% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,955 (+3.4% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,404 |
| Active inventory | 7,969 (+2.8% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.7 |
| Median days on market | 34 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.4% |
| Sold above asking | 17.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 34.6% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.55% |
CodeNEXT Is Dead. Now What Gets Built?
Two things happened in August. Council voted to end CodeNEXT after three drafts and eighteen months, and Council approved a Major League Soccer stadium at McKalla Place in north Austin. One decision froze Austin's housing supply rules in place; the other put a stadium at the Domain.
What changed since July 2018
The median rose $4,652 from July 2018, a 1.5% move. Time on market lengthened by 7 days, to 34. Active inventory grew by 250 listings, to 7,969. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 3.8 points, to 17.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| August 2018 | July 2018 | August 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $321,000 | $316,348 | $299,900 | range $255,626–$325,000 |
| Median days on market | 34 | 27 | 29 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 7,969 | 7,719 | 7,750 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Months of supply | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 18% | 21% | 18% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.55% | 4.53% | 3.88% | range 3.44%–4.59% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where August 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.7 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.4% of asking, so roughly 1.6% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $321,000 with 20% down at 4.55%, principal and interest runs about $1,309 a month. Add roughly $535 for property taxes and $214 for insurance and you are near $2,058 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 34 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Northwest Hills (78731). Highland Park, Mesa Park. Known for quiet, large lots, family neighborhoods. It fits families who want space and a central location.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Northwest Hills does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/northwest-hills/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, August 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Late August | Bat Fest, Congress Avenue Bridge | The Congress Avenue Bridge closes for the evening. A reminder that August in Austin is the month buyers stop touring and start waiting for October. |
What is coming next
The November 6 ballot: seven bond propositions totaling $925 million, including $250 million for affordable housing, which would be the largest housing bond in the city's history.
Common questions
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 34 days in August 2018. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 54 in December 2017.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
It is a reasonable one. At 2.7 months of supply neither side has a decisive edge, which means the outcome depends more on the specific house and your specific terms than on the market. That is the normal condition, and Austin has not spent much of the last decade in it.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers August 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.