Austin-area agents closed 3,171 sales in September 2021, down 7.3% year over year. The share selling above asking was 52%. The median sale was $460,000, up 28.1% year over year. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, September 2021
| Metric | September 2021 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $460,000 (+28.1% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $235 (+39.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,171 (-7.3% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,472 |
| Active inventory | 5,563 (+8.2% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.8 |
| Median days on market | 33 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 102.3% |
| Sold above asking | 51.9% |
| Listings with a price cut | 25.2% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 2.9% |
Reading a Cooling Market in Real Time
The above-list share fell to 52%, down from 75% in April, and the median came off its June high. Prices were still up 28% year over year, which is why almost nobody described this as cooling at the time. Both things were true.
What changed since August 2021
The median fell $19,600 from August 2021, a 4.1% move. Time on market lengthened by 1 days, to 33. Active inventory grew by 5 listings, to 5,563. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 10.5 points, to 51.9%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| September 2021 | August 2021 | September 2020 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $460,000 | $479,600 | $359,000 | range $255,626–$495,000 |
| Median days on market | 33 | 32 | 33 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 5,563 | 5,558 | 5,142 | range 2,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | range 0.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 52% | 62% | 34% | range 14%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 2.9% | 2.84% | 2.89% | range 2.68%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where September 2021 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
1.8 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed above asking, at 102.3% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.
The payment math. At $460,000 with 20% down at 2.9%, principal and interest runs about $1,532 a month. Add roughly $767 for property taxes and $307 for insurance and you are near $2,605 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 33 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
UT Area & Bryker Woods (78703 & 78705). West Campus, Bryker Woods, Old West Austin. Known for uT-adjacent investment potential. It fits investors and buyers who want to be in the center of everything.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, UT Area & Bryker Woods does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/ut-area-bryker-woods/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, September 2021
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25–26 | Pecan Street Festival (Fall), Sixth Street Historic District | The autumn edition, same footprint as May. Sixth Street closed for the weekend, downtown slow, nothing beyond it. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
Tesla's shareholder meeting October 7. Samsung's Taylor decision.
Common questions
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 28.1% year over year as of September 2021. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers September 2021; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.