Half the homes that sold across the Austin metro in May 2019 went for more than $330,000, and half for less, flat against a year earlier at +1.8%. The share selling above asking was 27%. The average sale closed at 99.2% of list. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, May 2019
| Metric | May 2019 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $330,000 (+1.8% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $157 (+3.0% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,441 (+7.2% YoY) |
| New listings | 4,219 |
| Active inventory | 7,094 (-0.5% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.1 |
| Median days on market | 22 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.2% |
| Sold above asking | 26.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 31.2% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.07% |
SB 2, HB 3, and Your Future Tax Bill
The Legislature passed Senate Bill 2, cutting the rollback rate for cities and counties from 8% to 3.5%, above which voter approval is required, and House Bill 3, a school finance rewrite with rate compression attached. Together they slow the growth of the tax bill without cutting it.
What changed since April 2019
The median rose $10,000 from April 2019, a 3.1% move. Time on market held flat, to 22. Active inventory grew by 639 listings, to 7,094. The share of homes selling over asking gained 0.7 points, to 26.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| May 2019 | April 2019 | May 2018 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $330,000 | $320,000 | $324,000 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 22 | 22 | 20 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 7,094 | 6,455 | 7,127 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | range 2.1–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 27% | 26% | 25% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.07% | 4.14% | 4.59% | range 3.44%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where May 2019 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.1 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed at 99.2% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $330,000 with 20% down at 4.07%, principal and interest runs about $1,271 a month. Add roughly $550 for property taxes and $220 for insurance and you are near $2,041 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 22 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Northwest Hills (78731). Highland Park, Mesa Park. Known for quiet, large lots, family neighborhoods. It fits families who want space and a central location.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Northwest Hills does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/northwest-hills/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, May 2019
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| May 4–5 | Pecan Street Festival (Spring), Sixth Street Historic District | Sixth Street closes to traffic for the weekend. Downtown and the eastern edge of 78701 are slow; everywhere else is unaffected. |
What is coming next
Both take effect for the 2020 tax year. Council also has a public camping ordinance on its June agenda that is about to become the dominant local political issue for two years.
Common questions
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $330,000 with 20% down at 4.07%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $2,041 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $82,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in May 2019 was $330,000. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers May 2019; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.