Money cost 4.59% in May 2018. The average 30-year fixed rate for the month, the highest monthly average in this series so far. The share selling above asking was 25%. The median sale was $324,000, up 4.4% year over year. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, May 2018
| Metric | May 2018 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $324,000 (+4.4% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $152 (+3.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,210 (+6.7% YoY) |
| New listings | 4,129 |
| Active inventory | 7,127 (+1.7% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.2 |
| Median days on market | 20 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.9% |
| Sold above asking | 25.1% |
| Listings with a price cut | 32.5% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.59% |
MUD Districts and the Tax Bill Nobody Quotes You
If you are shopping the suburbs, Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor, parts of Pflugerville, check whether the address sits in a MUD. A Municipal Utility District adds its own rate on top of city, county, and school, and it can push an all-in rate past 3%. It is the single most common surprise in a suburban Austin closing.
What changed since April 2018
The median rose $8,220 from April 2018, a 2.6% move. Time on market shortened by 1 days, to 20. Active inventory grew by 638 listings, to 7,127. The share of homes selling over asking gained 0.5 points, to 25.1%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| May 2018 | April 2018 | May 2017 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $324,000 | $315,780 | $310,250 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 20 | 21 | 19 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 7,127 | 6,489 | 7,007 | range 4,660–7,915 |
| Months of supply | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 25% | 25% | 25% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.59% | 4.47% | 4.01% | highest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where May 2018 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.2 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed at 98.9% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $324,000 with 20% down at 4.59%, principal and interest runs about $1,327 a month. Add roughly $540 for property taxes and $216 for insurance and you are near $2,083 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 20 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Westlake (78746). Rollingwood, Lost Creek, Rob Roy. Known for eanes ISD, Hill Country views, luxury. It fits families prioritizing schools, and runs $800K to $5M+.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Westlake does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/westlake/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, May 2018
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| May 5–6 | Pecan Street Festival (Spring), Sixth Street Historic District | Sixth Street closes to traffic for the weekend. Downtown and the eastern edge of 78701 are slow; everywhere else is unaffected. |
What is coming next
Council votes in August on the McKalla Place stadium proposal that would bring Major League Soccer to north Austin.
Common questions
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 4.4% year over year as of May 2018. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $324,000 with 20% down at 4.59%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $2,083 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $83,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers May 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.