The Austin metro carried 2.4 months of supply in March 2019, a seller's market. The median sale was $303,060, flat against a year earlier at +0.2%. Active inventory stood at 6,250 listings, up 4.0% year over year.
Austin market statistics, March 2019
| Metric | March 2019 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $303,060 (+0.2% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $151 (+1.4% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,646 (-0.0% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,620 |
| Active inventory | 6,250 (+4.0% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.4 |
| Median days on market | 35 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.6% |
| Sold above asking | 20.1% |
| Listings with a price cut | 24.1% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.26% |
What a Flat Year Actually Looks Like
Year-over-year price growth had been running near zero since December. The flattest stretch since 2012. This is what a normal market looks like, and it had been long enough since Austin had one that people kept calling it a slowdown.
What changed since February 2019
The median rose $8,060 from February 2019, a 2.7% move. Time on market shortened by 22 days, to 35. Active inventory grew by 285 listings, to 6,250. The share of homes selling over asking gained 2.3 points, to 20.1%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| March 2019 | February 2019 | March 2018 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $303,060 | $295,000 | $302,500 | range $255,626–$325,000 |
| Median days on market | 35 | 57 | 33 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 6,250 | 5,965 | 6,012 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | range 2.1–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 20% | 18% | 21% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.26% | 4.37% | 4.44% | range 3.44%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where March 2019 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.4 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed at 98.6% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $303,060 with 20% down at 4.26%, principal and interest runs about $1,194 a month. Add roughly $505 for property taxes and $202 for insurance and you are near $1,901 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 35 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Hyde Park (78751). North Loop, North University. Known for craftsman bungalows, established. It fits buyers who want an established neighborhood with long-term value.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Hyde Park does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/hyde-park/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, March 2019
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Early March | Zilker Kite Festival, Zilker Park | Zilker parking is gone by mid-morning and Barton Springs Road backs up. A Sunday that costs you traffic in 78704 and nowhere else. |
| Mar 8–17 | SXSW, Downtown / Convention Center | The hardest week of the year to show a downtown property. Central traffic is unusable and short-term rentals price like hotels. |
What is coming next
The homestead exemption deadline is April 30. Appraisal notices arrive in April, and a flat sale market with a rising appraisal is the best possible setup for a protest.
Common questions
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In March 2019, a seller's market, 2.4 months of supply, with 20% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.8 in January 2019.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 35 days in March 2019. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 58 in January 2019.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers March 2019; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.