The Austin metro carried 1.2 months of supply in July 2020, an extreme seller's market. The average sale closed at 99.5% of list. Homes took a median of 18 days to sell. Active inventory stood at 4,868 listings, down 34.4% year over year.
Austin market statistics, July 2020
| Metric | July 2020 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $359,000 (+10.8% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $167 (+7.2% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,993 (+19.6% YoY) |
| New listings | 4,000 |
| Active inventory | 4,868 (-34.4% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.2 |
| Median days on market | 18 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.5% |
| Sold above asking | 30.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 27.4% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.02% |
Tesla Picks Del Valle
Tesla announced Gigafactory Texas on July 22: 2,100 acres in Del Valle on SH-130, southeast of the airport, with an initial commitment of 5,000 jobs. Southeast Travis County had been the cheapest quadrant of the metro that morning. It did not stay that way.
What changed since June 2020
The median rose $14,000 from June 2020, a 4.1% move. Time on market shortened by 4 days, to 18. Active inventory shrank by 23 listings, to 4,868. The share of homes selling over asking gained 4.8 points, to 30.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| July 2020 | June 2020 | July 2019 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $359,000 | $345,000 | $324,000 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 18 | 22 | 27 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 4,868 | 4,891 | 7,420 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.2 | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| Sold above asking | 31% | 26% | 22% | range 14%–31% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.02% | 3.16% | 3.77% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where July 2020 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.2 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
The average sale closed at 99.5% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $359,000 with 20% down at 3.02%, principal and interest runs about $1,214 a month. Add roughly $598 for property taxes and $239 for insurance and you are near $2,052 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 18 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Deep South Austin (78745). Cherry Creek, Garrison Park, Manchaca. Known for value, access, first-time buyers. It fits first-time buyers and young families.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Deep South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, July 2020
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| July 2020 | Public events, cancelled | Austin's public event calendar did not run in its usual form. Large gatherings were restricted from mid-March 2020, and the festivals, races and street closures that normally shape a month here were cancelled, moved online or held at reduced size. |
What is coming next
Council is expected to put a large transit package on the November ballot.
Common questions
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 10.8% year over year as of July 2020. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $359,000 with 20% down at 3.02%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $2,052 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $82,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers July 2020; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.