The median single-family home in the Austin metro sold for $255,626 in January 2016, up 6.5% year over year. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.87% that month. Closed volume was 1,398 homes, down 2.8% year over year. Homes took a median of 34 days to sell. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, January 2016
| Metric | January 2016 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $255,626 (+6.5% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $130 (+9.8% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,398 (-2.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,175 |
| Active inventory | 4,660 (+3.9% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.3 |
| Median days on market | 34 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.1% |
| Sold above asking | 18.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 23.1% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.87% |
Homestead Exemption Season, and Why It Is Not Optional
January opens the homestead exemption window. If you closed on a primary residence last year you can file from January 1, and the deadline is April 30. It caps how fast the taxable value of your home can climb, and it costs nothing but a form most people forget.
What changed since December 2015
The median fell $15,094 from December 2015, a 5.6% move. Time on market shortened by 5 days, to 34. Active inventory shrank by 72 listings, to 4,660. The share of homes selling over asking gained 0.6 points, to 18.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| January 2016 | December 2015 | January 2015 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $255,626 | $270,720 | — | — |
| Median days on market | 34 | 39 | — | — |
| Active inventory | 4,660 | 4,732 | — | — |
| Months of supply | 3.3 | 2.1 | — | — |
| Sold above asking | 19% | 18% | — | — |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.87% | 3.96% | — | — |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where January 2016 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 3.3 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.1% of asking, so roughly 1.9% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $255,626 with 20% down at 3.87%, principal and interest runs about $961 a month. Add roughly $426 for property taxes and $170 for insurance and you are near $1,558 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 34 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Deep South Austin (78745). Cherry Creek, Garrison Park, Manchaca. Known for value, access, first-time buyers. It fits first-time buyers and young families.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Deep South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, January 2016
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18 | MLK Day March, UT campus to Huston-Tillotson, east | The march runs from campus east along MLK. Central and east street closures for the morning, and a poor Monday for showings along the route. |
What is coming next
Travis Central Appraisal District notices arrive in spring. The number printed on that notice is the number you would protest, and the window to do it is short.
Common questions
When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?
October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.
What is the average home price in Austin?
The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in January 2016 was $255,626. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In January 2016, a market tilted to sellers, 3.3 months of supply, with 19% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers January 2016; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.