2,277 homes changed hands across the Austin metro in December 2015, up 5.3% from the same month a year earlier. Active inventory stood at 4,732 listings, up 0.1% year over year. The share selling above asking was 18%. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, December 2015
| Metric | December 2015 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $270,720 (+9.7% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $131 (+9.7% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,277 (+5.3% YoY) |
| New listings | 1,392 |
| Active inventory | 4,732 (+0.1% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.1 |
| Median days on market | 39 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.0% |
| Sold above asking | 18.0% |
| Listings with a price cut | 18.4% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.96% |
The First Rate Hike Since 2006, and What It Actually Means
On December 16 the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2006. The next day the council passed its ridesharing framework 9-2, phasing fingerprint-based background checks in on a schedule: 25 percent of drivers by May 1, 50 percent by August 1, 85 percent by December 1, and 99 percent by February 2017.
What changed since November 2015
The median fell $4,280 from November 2015, a 1.6% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 39. Active inventory shrank by 594 listings, to 4,732. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 0.4 points, to 18.0%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| December 2015 | November 2015 | December 2014 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $270,720 | $275,000 | — | — |
| Median days on market | 39 | 35 | — | — |
| Active inventory | 4,732 | 5,326 | — | — |
| Months of supply | 2.1 | 3.1 | — | — |
| Sold above asking | 18% | 18% | — | — |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.96% | 3.94% | — | — |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where December 2015 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.1 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average home sold for 98.0% of asking, so roughly 2.0% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $270,720 with 20% down at 3.96%, principal and interest runs about $1,029 a month. Add roughly $451 for property taxes and $180 for insurance and you are near $1,661 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 39 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
South Austin (78704). Travis Heights, Bouldin Creek, Zilker, Barton Hills. Known for barton Springs, Zilker, tight inventory. It fits buyers who want walkability to South Congress and the park.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
What is coming next
Whether the two largest companies work to that schedule or force the question back to voters is the open argument of the new year. Either way the rules are on the books now.
Common questions
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In December 2015, a seller's market, 2.1 months of supply, with 18% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 39 days in December 2015. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers December 2015; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.