In April 2020, 31% of Austin-area homes sold for more than the asking price. Active inventory stood at 6,017 listings, down 6.8% year over year. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.31% that month, the lowest monthly average in this series so far. The average sale closed at 99.5% of list. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, April 2020
| Metric | April 2020 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $325,000 (+1.6% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $159 (+3.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,357 (-20.3% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,014 |
| Active inventory | 6,017 (-6.8% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.6 |
| Median days on market | 17 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.5% |
| Sold above asking | 30.9% |
| Listings with a price cut | 20.7% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.31% |
Buying a House You Toured on Video
Days on market fell to 17, a record, while sales volume dropped, because the buyers still in the market were serious and the listings were scarce. Virtual tours went from a gimmick to a requirement in about three weeks. A separate ruling in state court had also stalled the land development code rewrite over notice and protest rights.
What changed since March 2020
The median fell $5,000 from March 2020, a 1.5% move. Time on market shortened by 7 days, to 17. Active inventory grew by 427 listings, to 6,017. The share of homes selling over asking gained 1.8 points, to 30.9%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| April 2020 | March 2020 | April 2019 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $325,000 | $330,000 | $320,000 | range $255,626–$332,327 |
| Median days on market | 17 | 24 | 22 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 6,017 | 5,590 | 6,455 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 2.6 | 2 | 2.2 | range 1.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 31% | 29% | 26% | highest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.31% | 3.45% | 4.14% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where April 2020 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.6 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average sale closed at 99.5% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $325,000 with 20% down at 3.31%, principal and interest runs about $1,140 a month. Add roughly $542 for property taxes and $217 for insurance and you are near $1,898 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 17 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Downtown Austin (78701). Rainey Street, 6th Street, Congress Ave. Known for high-rise condos, walkable nightlife. It fits professionals who want urban living without a commute, and runs $350K condos to $1M+ penthouses.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Downtown Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/downtown-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, April 2020
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Public events, cancelled | Austin's public event calendar did not run in its usual form. Large gatherings were restricted from mid-March 2020, and the festivals, races and street closures that normally shape a month here were cancelled, moved online or held at reduced size. |
What is coming next
Phased reopening through May. Mortgage rates heading toward 3%.
Common questions
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In April 2020, a market tilted to sellers, 2.6 months of supply, with 31% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 1.9 months in December 2019 to 3.8 in January 2019.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 17 days in April 2020. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 58 in January 2019.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers April 2020; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.