The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.9% in October 2022, the highest monthly average in this series so far. The median sat 15.6% below the April 2022 peak of $565,000. At 5.1 months of supply, it was a buyer's market. Active inventory stood at 10,293 listings, up 86.3% year over year.
Austin market statistics, October 2022
| Metric | October 2022 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $476,748 (+3.6% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $240 (+1.5% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,035 (-25.7% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,575 |
| Active inventory | 10,293 (+86.3% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 5.1 |
| Median days on market | 54 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.4% |
| Sold above asking | 15.9% |
| Listings with a price cut | 48.4% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 6.9% |
7% Mortgages and a $175,000 Haircut
The 30-year fixed hit 7.08% on October 27, the highest since 2002. Sales were down about 30% year over year and days on market reached 54. A buyer approved for $700,000 in January was approved for roughly $525,000 in October, on the same income.
What changed since September 2022
The median fell $2,152 from September 2022, a 0.4% move. Time on market lengthened by 7 days, to 54. Active inventory shrank by 354 listings, to 10,293. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 6.3 points, to 15.9%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| October 2022 | September 2022 | October 2021 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $476,748 | $478,900 | $460,000 | range $255,626–$565,000 |
| Median days on market | 54 | 47 | 34 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 10,293 | 10,647 | 5,524 | range 2,660–10,647 |
| Months of supply | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Sold above asking | 16% | 22% | 51% | range 14%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 6.9% | 6.11% | 3.07% | highest since Oct 2016 |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where October 2022 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 5.1 months of supply this is a buyer's market, and 54 median days on market is the negotiating position. A listing that is ninety days old belongs to a seller whose plan is not working. That is worth more than any clever offer strategy.
The average home sold for 97.4% of asking, so roughly 2.6% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $476,748 with 20% down at 6.9%, principal and interest runs about $2,512 a month. Add roughly $795 for property taxes and $318 for insurance and you are near $3,624 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: with 10,293 active listings and 54 median days on market, you are competing against a lot of houses and a patient buyer. Price ahead of the market rather than chasing it down, and consider funding a rate buydown, at these rates it moves a buyer's monthly payment more than an equivalent price cut does.
Neighborhood in focus
Deep South Austin (78745). Cherry Creek, Garrison Park, Manchaca. Known for value, access, first-time buyers. It fits first-time buyers and young families.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Deep South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, October 2022
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 7–16 | ACL Music Festival, Zilker Park | Two weekends. Zilker, Barton Hills and 78704 are closed to normal traffic both of them, and rental demand spikes citywide. |
| Oct 23 | Formula 1 United States Grand Prix, Circuit of the Americas, southeast | Race weekend. Southeast Travis County and SH-130 congest from Friday, and downtown hotel rates hit their annual high. |
| Late October | Austin Film Festival, Downtown theatres and hotels | Eight days across downtown venues. Hotel demand overlaps the Grand Prix weekend most years, which is when downtown rates peak. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
The November 8 election, including the AISD bond. And the first negative year-over-year price reading since 2012, which is one month away.
Common questions
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 3.6% year over year as of October 2022. Against the April 2022 peak of $565,000, the metro median is 15.6% lower. Which number matters to you depends on when you bought.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers October 2022; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.