In May 2021, 74% of the homes that closed across the Austin metro went for over list. Active inventory stood at 4,174 listings, down 26.2% year over year. The median sale was $472,850, up 43.5% year over year. That made it an extreme seller's market.
Austin market statistics, May 2021
| Metric | May 2021 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $472,850 (+43.5% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $228 (+42.1% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,351 (+39.7% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,733 |
| Active inventory | 4,174 (-26.2% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 1.2 |
| Median days on market | 26 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 109.3% |
| Sold above asking | 73.6% |
| Listings with a price cut | 9.8% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 2.96% |
Prop B Passes and Q2 Stadium Opens
Proposition B passed on May 1, reinstating the public camping ban that Council had repealed in 2019. Q2 Stadium was finishing for a June opening. And the above-list share ticked down for the first time in a year, from 75% to 74%: probably noise, but it is the first month in a year that number has not gone up.
What changed since April 2021
The median fell $2,150 from April 2021, a 0.5% move. Time on market lengthened by 2 days, to 26. Active inventory grew by 172 listings, to 4,174. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.4 points, to 73.6%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| May 2021 | April 2021 | May 2020 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $472,850 | $475,000 | $329,416 | range $255,626–$475,000 |
| Median days on market | 26 | 24 | 23 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 4,174 | 4,002 | 5,654 | range 2,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | range 0.9–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 74% | 75% | 24% | range 14%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 2.96% | 3.06% | 3.23% | range 2.68%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where May 2021 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 1.2 months of supply there is no version of this where you take your time. Be fully underwritten before you tour, not pre-qualified, underwritten, with income and assets already verified. Decide your ceiling in writing before you see the house, because you will be asked to decide in a day.
74% of homes sold above asking. Assume list price is a starting bid, and ask your agent what the last five comparable sales actually closed at versus what they were listed at.
The average sale closed above asking, at 109.3% of list. Offering under list was, statistically, not a strategy that month.
The payment math. At $472,850 with 20% down at 2.96%, principal and interest runs about $1,587 a month. Add roughly $788 for property taxes and $315 for insurance and you are near $2,690 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 26 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Westlake (78746). Rollingwood, Lost Creek, Rob Roy. Known for eanes ISD, Hill Country views, luxury. It fits families prioritizing schools, and runs $800K to $5M+.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Westlake does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/westlake/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, May 2021
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| May 2021 | Public events, cancelled | Austin's public event calendar did not run in its usual form. Large gatherings were restricted from mid-March 2020, and the festivals, races and street closures that normally shape a month here were cancelled, moved online or held at reduced size. |
What is coming next
Austin FC's first home match June 19. Summer inventory, which even in this market should improve slightly.
Common questions
Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?
In May 2021, an extreme seller's market, 1.2 months of supply, with 74% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 0.9 months in December 2020 to 3.8 in January 2019.
What is a MUD district and why does it matter?
A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.
How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?
A median of 26 days in May 2021. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 58 in January 2019.
What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?
It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods, including the parts that are not flattering.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers May 2021; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.