The median Austin-area listing spent 24 days on the market in March 2016. Active inventory stood at 5,349 listings, up 12.0% year over year. The share selling above asking was 26%.
Austin market statistics, March 2016
| Metric | March 2016 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $280,000 (+7.7% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $135 (+7.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,466 (+8.1% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,373 |
| Active inventory | 5,349 (+12.0% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.2 |
| Median days on market | 24 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.8% |
| Sold above asking | 26.4% |
| Listings with a price cut | 25.8% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.69% |
SXSW, and the Week Austin Rents Its Own City Back
SXSW ran March 11 through 20 and drew a sitting president: Barack Obama spoke at Interactive on the opening day, the first appearance by a president in the festival's history.
What changed since February 2016
The median rose $10,000 from February 2016, a 3.7% move. Time on market shortened by 15 days, to 24. Active inventory grew by 518 listings, to 5,349. The share of homes selling over asking gained 4.9 points, to 26.4%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| March 2016 | February 2016 | March 2015 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $280,000 | $270,000 | — | — |
| Median days on market | 24 | 39 | — | — |
| Active inventory | 5,349 | 4,831 | — | — |
| Months of supply | 2.2 | 2.7 | — | — |
| Sold above asking | 26% | 22% | — | — |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.69% | 3.66% | — | — |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where March 2016 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.2 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed at 98.8% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $280,000 with 20% down at 3.69%, principal and interest runs about $1,030 a month. Add roughly $467 for property taxes and $187 for insurance and you are near $1,683 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 24 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Hyde Park (78751). North Loop, North University. Known for craftsman bungalows, established. It fits buyers who want an established neighborhood with long-term value.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Hyde Park does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/hyde-park/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, March 2016
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Early March | Zilker Kite Festival, Zilker Park | Zilker parking is gone by mid-morning and Barton Springs Road backs up. A Sunday that costs you traffic in 78704 and nowhere else. |
What is coming next
The homestead exemption deadline is April 30. If you bought last year and have not filed, file. It is the cheapest thing you will ever do for your tax bill.
Common questions
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 7.7% year over year as of March 2016. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $280,000 with 20% down at 3.69%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $1,683 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $67,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers March 2016; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.