Austin-area agents closed 3,338 sales in July 2019, up 9.8% year over year. The median sale was $324,000, up 2.4% year over year. Homes took a median of 27 days to sell. Active inventory stood at 7,420 listings, down 3.9% year over year. That made it a seller's market.
Austin market statistics, July 2019
| Metric | July 2019 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $324,000 (+2.4% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $156 (+2.9% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,338 (+9.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,553 |
| Active inventory | 7,420 (-3.9% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.2 |
| Median days on market | 27 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.9% |
| Sold above asking | 22.3% |
| Listings with a price cut | 36.3% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.77% |
A Point of Rate Beats a Point of Price
The Federal Reserve cut rates in July for the first time since 2008. The 30-year mortgage drifted toward 3.6%, the lowest since 2016. The arithmetic that matters: a full point of rate is worth roughly 10% of purchasing power, which is a bigger swing than most buyers get from negotiating price.
What changed since June 2019
The median fell $8,327 from June 2019, a 2.5% move. Time on market lengthened by 3 days, to 27. Active inventory shrank by 12 listings, to 7,420. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 2.1 points, to 22.3%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| July 2019 | June 2019 | July 2018 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $324,000 | $332,327 | $316,348 | range $255,626–$332,327 |
| Median days on market | 27 | 24 | 27 | range 16–58 |
| Active inventory | 7,420 | 7,432 | 7,719 | range 4,660–7,969 |
| Months of supply | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | range 2.1–3.8 |
| Sold above asking | 22% | 24% | 21% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.77% | 3.8% | 4.53% | range 3.44%–4.87% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where July 2019 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
2.2 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.
The average sale closed at 98.9% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $324,000 with 20% down at 3.77%, principal and interest runs about $1,203 a month. Add roughly $540 for property taxes and $216 for insurance and you are near $1,959 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 27 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.
Neighborhood in focus
Downtown Austin (78701). Rainey Street, 6th Street, Congress Ave. Known for high-rise condos, walkable nightlife. It fits professionals who want urban living without a commute, and runs $350K condos to $1M+ penthouses.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Downtown Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/downtown-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, July 2019
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4 | Fourth of July Concert and Fireworks, Auditorium Shores / Lady Bird Lake | The Austin Symphony on Auditorium Shores with fireworks over the lake. Downtown and the south shore close from late afternoon. |
What is coming next
Another likely Fed cut in September. Q2 Stadium groundbreaking. The land development code draft in October.
Common questions
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 2.4% year over year as of July 2019. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers July 2019; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.