At 2.7 months of supply, April 2017 was a market tilted to sellers across the Austin metro. The share selling above asking was 27%. The 30-year fixed averaged 4.04% that month. The median sale was $305,000, up 5.2% year over year.
Austin market statistics, April 2017
| Metric | April 2017 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $305,000 (+5.2% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $145 (+6.2% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,449 (-0.9% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,646 |
| Active inventory | 6,492 (+13.3% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.7 |
| Median days on market | 18 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.9% |
| Sold above asking | 27.0% |
| Listings with a price cut | 27.1% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.04% |
April Is the Worst Month to Buy in Austin
April is structurally the hardest month to buy in Austin, and the data says so every year: the fastest days-on-market and the highest share of homes selling over list both land in April or May. Buyers who wait for the "spring selection" arrive at the same time as everyone else.
What changed since March 2017
The median rose $6,000 from March 2017, a 2.0% move. Time on market shortened by 6 days, to 18. Active inventory grew by 546 listings, to 6,492. The share of homes selling over asking gained 3.9 points, to 27.0%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| April 2017 | March 2017 | April 2016 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $305,000 | $299,000 | $290,000 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 18 | 24 | 17 | range 16–44 |
| Active inventory | 6,492 | 5,946 | 5,730 | range 4,660–6,891 |
| Months of supply | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 27% | 23% | 30% | range 17%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.04% | 4.2% | 3.61% | range 3.44%–4.2% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where April 2017 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.7 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average sale closed at 98.9% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.
The payment math. At $305,000 with 20% down at 4.04%, principal and interest runs about $1,171 a month. Add roughly $508 for property taxes and $203 for insurance and you are near $1,882 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 18 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Downtown Austin (78701). Rainey Street, 6th Street, Congress Ave. Known for high-rise condos, walkable nightlife. It fits professionals who want urban living without a commute, and runs $350K condos to $1M+ penthouses.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Downtown Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/downtown-austin/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, April 2017
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Late April | Austin Food + Wine Festival, Auditorium Shores | Auditorium Shores and the south shore of Lady Bird Lake close for the weekend. Downtown hotel demand rises but nothing like SXSW. |
| Late March into early April | Texas Relays, Mike A. Myers Stadium, UT campus | Campus-area traffic and hotels fill for the weekend. Localised to 78705 and the blocks around San Jacinto. |
What is coming next
HB 100, the state ride-hailing bill, is close to passage. If it is signed, Uber and Lyft return within days and the local transportation-network question goes away.
Common questions
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 5.2% year over year as of April 2017. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?
The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.
I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?
Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.
How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?
At $305,000 with 20% down at 4.04%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $1,882 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around $75,000. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers April 2017; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.