37 days. That is how long the typical Austin-area listing sat before it sold in November 2016. The median sale was $290,000, up 5.5% year over year. Active inventory stood at 5,595 listings, up 5.1% year over year. That made it a market tilted to sellers.
Austin market statistics, November 2016
| Metric | November 2016 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $290,000 (+5.5% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $139 (+4.5% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,036 (+18.3% YoY) |
| New listings | 1,838 |
| Active inventory | 5,595 (+5.1% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.7 |
| Median days on market | 37 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.1% |
| Sold above asking | 16.7% |
| Listings with a price cut | 26.5% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.77% |
The Mobility Bond and Your Commute
Voters passed the $720 million mobility bond on November 8. The money goes to corridor plans on Burnet, North Lamar, Airport, Riverside, Guadalupe, South Lamar, East MLK, Slaughter and William Cannon. If you are buying along one of those roads, expect years of construction before you get the improved version.
What changed since October 2016
The median rose $10,000 from October 2016, a 3.6% move. Time on market lengthened by 3 days, to 37. Active inventory shrank by 660 listings, to 5,595. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.2 points, to 16.7%.
One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.
Where this month sits in the cycle
| November 2016 | October 2016 | November 2015 | Since Oct 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $290,000 | $280,000 | $275,000 | range $255,626–$295,250 |
| Median days on market | 37 | 34 | 35 | range 16–39 |
| Active inventory | 5,595 | 6,255 | 5,326 | range 4,660–6,891 |
| Months of supply | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 17% | 18% | 18% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.77% | 3.47% | 3.94% | range 3.44%–3.96% |
The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where November 2016 falls against every month that came before it.
If you are buying in Austin right now
At 2.7 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.
The average home sold for 98.1% of asking, so roughly 1.9% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.
The payment math. At $290,000 with 20% down at 3.77%, principal and interest runs about $1,077 a month. Add roughly $483 for property taxes and $193 for insurance and you are near $1,754 a month all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.
If you are selling: 37 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.
Neighborhood in focus
Westlake (78746). Rollingwood, Lost Creek, Rob Roy. Known for eanes ISD, Hill Country views, luxury. It fits families prioritizing schools, and runs $800K to $5M+.
The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Westlake does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at /neighborhoods/westlake/, including what is wrong with it.
On in Austin, November 2016
| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
|---|---|---|
| Early to mid-November | Texas Book Festival, Texas Capitol grounds | Congress Avenue and the Capitol grounds close for the weekend. Central showings north of the river lose an afternoon. |
| Nov 24 | ThunderCloud Subs Turkey Trot, Downtown / Long Center | Thanksgiving morning, tens of thousands of runners downtown. Nobody is buying a house that week, which is exactly why the last week of November is worth a serious offer. |
| Home Saturdays | Texas Longhorns home games, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |
What is coming next
The CodeNEXT first draft lands in January. Meanwhile the winter slowdown is real: December and January are the two thinnest months of the Austin year, which is exactly why they are the two best months to be a buyer.
Common questions
Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?
It is a reasonable one. At 2.7 months of supply neither side has a decisive edge, which means the outcome depends more on the specific house and your specific terms than on the market. That is the normal condition, and Austin has not spent much of the last decade in it.
How much are property taxes in Austin?
Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.
What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?
Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.
Are Austin home prices going up or down?
Up 5.5% year over year as of November 2016. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.
Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers November 2016; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.
Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.
Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, ask me directly.