# Austin Housing Market Report: September 2017, The Flood Map Austin Uses Instead of FEMA’s

> The Austin metro median sale price was $290,976 in September 2017, +3.9% year over year, with homes selling in 39 days and 3.2 months of supply. The Flood Map Austin Uses Instead of FEMA’s, what the numbers mean if you are buying or selling in Austin.

Mike Vilece · October 15, 2017
Canonical page: https://theaustinlocalgroup.com/blog/austin-housing-market-september-2017/

Austin-area agents closed **2,334 sales** in September 2017, down 4.5% year over year. Active inventory stood at 7,430 listings, up 11.6% year over year. The share selling above asking was 15%. That made it a market tilted to sellers.

## Austin market statistics, September 2017

| Metric | September 2017 |
| --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $290,976 (+3.9% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $143 (+4.0% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,334 (-4.5% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,504 |
| Active inventory | 7,430 (+11.6% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.2 |
| Median days on market | 39 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.1% |
| Sold above asking | 15.0% |
| Listings with a price cut | 35.9% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.8% |

## The Flood Map Austin Uses Instead of FEMA’s

CodeNEXT's second draft landed in September to a reception no warmer than the first. Separately, and more useful to a buyer: Austin uses its own floodplain modeling that is often stricter than FEMA's, and a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and still be in the city's. Check both.

## What changed since August 2017

The median fell $8,924 from August 2017, a 3.0% move. Time on market lengthened by 10 days, to 39. Active inventory shrank by 320 listings, to 7,430. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 3.3 points, to 15.0%.

One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.

## Where this month sits in the cycle

| | September 2017 | August 2017 | September 2016 | Since Oct 2016 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $290,976 | $299,900 | $280,084 | range $255,626–$314,500 |
| Median days on market | 39 | 29 | 28 | range 16–44 |
| Active inventory | 7,430 | 7,750 | 6,658 | range 4,660–7,915 |
| Months of supply | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 15% | 18% | 19% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.8% | 3.88% | 3.46% | range 3.44%–4.2% |

The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where September 2017 falls against every month that came before it.

## If you are buying in Austin right now

At 3.2 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.

The average home sold for 98.1% of asking, so roughly 1.9% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.

**The payment math.** At $290,976 with 20% down at 3.8%, principal and interest runs about **$1,085 a month**. Add roughly $485 for property taxes and $194 for insurance and you are near **$1,764 a month** all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.

**If you are selling:** 39 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.

## Neighborhood in focus

**Hyde Park (78751).** North Loop, North University. Known for craftsman bungalows, established. It fits buyers who want an established neighborhood with long-term value.

The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Hyde Park does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at [/neighborhoods/hyde-park/](/neighborhoods/hyde-park/), including what is wrong with it.

## On in Austin, September 2017

| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 30–Oct 1 | **Pecan Street Festival (Fall)**, Sixth Street Historic District | The autumn edition, same footprint as May. Sixth Street closed for the weekend, downtown slow, nothing beyond it. |
| Home Saturdays | **Texas Longhorns home games**, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |

## What is coming next

Austin submitted a bid for Amazon's second headquarters in October. Expect a lot of local noise about it and very little actual information.

## Common questions

### How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?

At $290,976 with 20% down at 3.8%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $1,764 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around **$71,000**. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.

### When is the best time of year to buy a house in Austin?

October through January, consistently. Austin's listing calendar runs about six weeks ahead of the national one. The best selection appears in March and April, and so does the most competition. By late fall, spring listings are six months old, sellers have adjusted their expectations, and days on market runs 30 to 50 days longer than it did in April. You get less to choose from and far more leverage over what is left.

### What is the average home price in Austin?

The median single-family sale across the Austin metro in September 2017 was $290,976. Median is the more useful number than average here. A handful of Westlake and Tarrytown sales pull an average upward in a way that tells you nothing about what you will pay. Note also that the metro figure covers Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties; the City of Austin proper runs meaningfully higher, and the suburbs meaningfully lower.

### Is Austin a buyer's market or a seller's market?

In September 2017, a market tilted to sellers, 3.2 months of supply, with 15% of homes selling above asking. The rough convention: under about 3 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers. Since October 2016 this metro has ranged from 2.1 months in December 2015 to 3.3 in January 2016.

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*Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers September 2017; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.*

*Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.*

*Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, [ask me directly](/#contact).*

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