# Austin Housing Market Report: November 2023, Proposition 4 and Your 2024 Tax Bill

> The Austin metro median sale price was $433,000 in November 2023, -8.8% year over year, with homes selling in 67 days and 4.8 months of supply. Proposition 4 and Your 2024 Tax Bill, what the numbers mean if you are buying or selling in Austin.

Mike Vilece · December 15, 2023
Canonical page: https://theaustinlocalgroup.com/blog/austin-housing-market-november-2023/

Money cost **7.44%** in November 2023. The average 30-year fixed rate for the month. The median sale was $433,000, down 8.8% year over year. Homes took a median of 67 days to sell. That made it a buyer's market.

## Austin market statistics, November 2023

| Metric | November 2023 |
| --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $433,000 (-8.8% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $216 (-7.2% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,901 (+1.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 2,466 |
| Active inventory | 9,199 (-2.1% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 4.8 |
| Median days on market | 67 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.1% |
| Sold above asking | 12.2% |
| Listings with a price cut | 32.6% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 7.44% |

## Proposition 4 and Your 2024 Tax Bill

Texas voters passed Proposition 4 on November 7, raising the school district homestead exemption from $40,000 to $100,000 and compressing school rates. Rates fell back to about 7.2% from the October high. For a $450,000 Austin homestead the exemption change is worth roughly $1,200 to $1,400 a year, permanently.

## What changed since October 2023

The median fell $16,665 from October 2023, a 3.7% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 67. Active inventory shrank by 276 listings, to 9,199. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.0 points, to 12.2%.

One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.

## Where this month sits in the cycle

| | November 2023 | October 2023 | November 2022 | Since Oct 2016 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $433,000 | $449,665 | $475,000 | range $255,626–$565,000 |
| Median days on market | 67 | 63 | 61 | range 16–85 |
| Active inventory | 9,199 | 9,475 | 9,392 | range 2,660–10,647 |
| Months of supply | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5 | range 0.9–5.4 |
| Sold above asking | 12% | 13% | 13% | range 10%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 7.44% | 7.62% | 6.8% | range 2.68%–7.62% |

The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where November 2023 falls against every month that came before it.

## If you are buying in Austin right now

At 4.8 months of supply this is a buyer's market, and 67 median days on market is the negotiating position. A listing that is ninety days old belongs to a seller whose plan is not working. That is worth more than any clever offer strategy.

The average home sold for 97.1% of asking, so roughly 2.9% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.

**The payment math.** At $433,000 with 20% down at 7.44%, principal and interest runs about **$2,408 a month**. Add roughly $722 for property taxes and $289 for insurance and you are near **$3,418 a month** all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.

**If you are selling:** with 9,199 active listings and 67 median days on market, you are competing against a lot of houses and a patient buyer. Price ahead of the market rather than chasing it down, and consider funding a rate buydown, at these rates it moves a buyer's monthly payment more than an equivalent price cut does.

## Neighborhood in focus

**Northwest Hills (78731).** Highland Park, Mesa Park. Known for quiet, large lots, family neighborhoods. It fits families who want space and a central location.

The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Northwest Hills does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at [/neighborhoods/northwest-hills/](/neighborhoods/northwest-hills/), including what is wrong with it.

## On in Austin, November 2023

| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Early to mid-November | **Texas Book Festival**, Texas Capitol grounds | Congress Avenue and the Capitol grounds close for the weekend. Central showings north of the river lose an afternoon. |
| Nov 23 | **ThunderCloud Subs Turkey Trot**, Downtown / Long Center | Thanksgiving morning, tens of thousands of runners downtown. Nobody is buying a house that week, which is exactly why the last week of November is worth a serious offer. |
| Home Saturdays | **Texas Longhorns home games**, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |

## What is coming next

Council votes December 7 on HOME Phase 1. The biggest proposed change to Austin's single-family zoning in forty years.

## Common questions

### What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?

Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.

### Are Austin home prices going up or down?

Down 8.8% year over year as of November 2023. Against the April 2022 peak of $565,000, the metro median is 23.4% lower. Which number matters to you depends on when you bought.

### Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?

The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.

### What is a MUD district and why does it matter?

A Municipal Utility District is a taxing entity that finances water, sewer and drainage infrastructure in developments outside city utility service: common in Leander, Kyle, Buda, Manor and parts of Pflugerville and Dripping Springs. It levies its own rate on top of city, county and school, and can add a full percentage point or more to your effective tax rate. MUD rates typically decline as the district's debt is paid down, but that takes decades. It is the most common surprise in a suburban Central Texas closing, and it is disclosed, read the MUD notice.

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*Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers November 2023; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.*

*Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.*

*Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, [ask me directly](/#contact).*

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