# Austin Housing Market Report: November 2022, The First Negative Print Since 2012

> The Austin metro median sale price was $475,000 in November 2022, -0.7% year over year, with homes selling in 61 days and 5 months of supply. The First Negative Print Since 2012, what the numbers mean if you are buying or selling in Austin.

Mike Vilece · December 15, 2022
Canonical page: https://theaustinlocalgroup.com/blog/austin-housing-market-november-2022/

In November 2022, **13%** of the homes that closed across the Austin metro went for over list. Active inventory stood at 9,392 listings, up 99.9% year over year. Closed volume was 1,867 homes, down 33.8% year over year. That made it a buyer's market.

## Austin market statistics, November 2022

| Metric | November 2022 |
| --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $475,000 (-0.7% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $233 (-4.2% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,867 (-33.8% YoY) |
| New listings | 1,904 |
| Active inventory | 9,392 (+99.9% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 5 |
| Median days on market | 61 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 96.3% |
| Sold above asking | 12.8% |
| Listings with a price cut | 40.4% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 6.8% |

## The First Negative Print Since 2012

The median came in at $475,000, down 0.7% from November 2021. The first negative year-over-year reading since 2012. Voters passed the $2.44 billion Austin ISD bond on November 8. Days on market hit 61 and the above-list share fell to 13%.

## What changed since October 2022

The median fell $1,748 from October 2022, a 0.4% move. Time on market lengthened by 7 days, to 61. Active inventory shrank by 901 listings, to 9,392. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 3.1 points, to 12.8%.

One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.

## Where this month sits in the cycle

| | November 2022 | October 2022 | November 2021 | Since Oct 2016 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $475,000 | $476,748 | $478,250 | range $255,626–$565,000 |
| Median days on market | 61 | 54 | 36 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Active inventory | 9,392 | 10,293 | 4,698 | range 2,660–10,647 |
| Months of supply | 5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | range 0.9–5.1 |
| Sold above asking | 13% | 16% | 46% | lowest since Oct 2016 |
| 30-year fixed rate | 6.8% | 6.9% | 3.07% | range 2.68%–6.9% |

The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where November 2022 falls against every month that came before it.

## If you are buying in Austin right now

At 5 months of supply this is a buyer's market, and 61 median days on market is the negotiating position. A listing that is ninety days old belongs to a seller whose plan is not working. That is worth more than any clever offer strategy.

The average home sold for 96.3% of asking, so roughly 3.7% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.

**The payment math.** At $475,000 with 20% down at 6.8%, principal and interest runs about **$2,477 a month**. Add roughly $792 for property taxes and $317 for insurance and you are near **$3,586 a month** all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.

**If you are selling:** with 9,392 active listings and 61 median days on market, you are competing against a lot of houses and a patient buyer. Price ahead of the market rather than chasing it down, and consider funding a rate buydown, at these rates it moves a buyer's monthly payment more than an equivalent price cut does.

## Neighborhood in focus

**Westlake (78746).** Rollingwood, Lost Creek, Rob Roy. Known for eanes ISD, Hill Country views, luxury. It fits families prioritizing schools, and runs $800K to $5M+.

The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Westlake does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at [/neighborhoods/westlake/](/neighborhoods/westlake/), including what is wrong with it.

## On in Austin, November 2022

| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Early to mid-November | **Texas Book Festival**, Texas Capitol grounds | Congress Avenue and the Capitol grounds close for the weekend. Central showings north of the river lose an afternoon. |
| Nov 24 | **ThunderCloud Subs Turkey Trot**, Downtown / Long Center | Thanksgiving morning, tens of thousands of runners downtown. Nobody is buying a house that week, which is exactly why the last week of November is worth a serious offer. |
| Home Saturdays | **Texas Longhorns home games**, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium | I-35 through central, campus parking and everything within a mile of the stadium stop working by late morning on a home Saturday. A wasted afternoon for an open house in 78705, 78751 or downtown. |

## What is coming next

The 88th Legislature convenes in January with a large property tax relief package expected, funded by a state surplus.

## Common questions

### How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?

A median of 61 days in November 2022. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions. For reference, since October 2016 this measure has ranged from 16 days in May 2016 to 61 in November 2022.

### What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?

It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at [theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods](/neighborhoods/), including the parts that are not flattering.

### I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?

Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.

### How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?

At $475,000 with 20% down at 6.8%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $3,586 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around **$143,000**. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.

---

*Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers November 2022; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.*

*Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.*

*Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, [ask me directly](/#contact).*

---

More posts: https://theaustinlocalgroup.com/blog/