# Austin Housing Market Report: November 2015, Why Thin Winter Inventory Favors the Prepared Buyer

> The Austin metro median sale price was $275,000 in November 2015, +11.6% year over year, with homes selling in 35 days and 3.1 months of supply. Why Thin Winter Inventory Favors the Prepared Buyer, what the numbers mean if you are buying or selling in Austin.

Mike Vilece · December 15, 2015
Canonical page: https://theaustinlocalgroup.com/blog/austin-housing-market-november-2015/

In November 2015, **18%** of the homes that closed across the Austin metro went for over list. Homes took a median of 35 days to sell. Active inventory stood at 5,326 listings, down 1.8% year over year. That made it a market tilted to sellers.

## Austin market statistics, November 2015

| Metric | November 2015 |
| --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $275,000 (+11.6% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $133 (+9.1% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 1,721 (-3.3% YoY) |
| New listings | 1,802 |
| Active inventory | 5,326 (-1.8% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.1 |
| Median days on market | 35 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.9% |
| Sold above asking | 18.4% |
| Listings with a price cut | 24.4% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 3.94% |

## Why Thin Winter Inventory Favors the Prepared Buyer

The ridesharing fight moved from petition drive to council chamber. After a signature campaign forced the question, the council spent the autumn working toward a framework for fingerprint-based background checks: an argument running since the companies arrived, and by November clearly heading for a vote.

## What changed since October 2015

The median rose $15,100 from October 2015, a 5.8% move. Time on market lengthened by 4 days, to 35. Active inventory shrank by 593 listings, to 5,326. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 0.4 points, to 18.4%.

One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.

## Where this month sits in the cycle

| | November 2015 | October 2015 | November 2014 | Since Oct 2016 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $275,000 | $259,900 | — | — |
| Median days on market | 35 | 31 | — | — |
| Active inventory | 5,326 | 5,919 | — | — |
| Months of supply | 3.1 | 2.7 | — | — |
| Sold above asking | 18% | 19% | — | — |
| 30-year fixed rate | 3.94% | 3.8% | — | — |

The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where November 2015 falls against every month that came before it.

## If you are buying in Austin right now

At 3.1 months of supply, sellers still have the edge on the best listings and buyers have real leverage on everything else. The spread between those two groups is where the negotiation lives.

The average home sold for 97.9% of asking, so roughly 2.1% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.

**The payment math.** At $275,000 with 20% down at 3.94%, principal and interest runs about **$1,043 a month**. Add roughly $458 for property taxes and $183 for insurance and you are near **$1,684 a month** all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.

**If you are selling:** 35 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.

## Neighborhood in focus

**East Austin (78702).** Holly, Rosewood. Known for creative, eclectic, strong appreciation. It fits buyers who want character and culture.

The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, East Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at [/neighborhoods/east-austin/](/neighborhoods/east-austin/), including what is wrong with it.

## What is coming next

The Federal Reserve meets December 15 and 16, and a first increase since 2006 is widely expected. The headline number matters less than what it signals about the direction of money over the next few years.

## Common questions

### How long are homes taking to sell in Austin?

A median of 35 days in November 2015. That is the number to watch if you only watch one, days on market turns before price does, in both directions.

### What are the best neighborhoods in Austin for families?

It depends on what you are optimizing for, and anyone who answers without asking is selling you something. Broadly: Circle C, Steiner Ranch and Avery Ranch for space and schools; Mueller, Crestview and Brentwood for walkability with a yard; Westlake and West Lake Hills for Eanes ISD if the budget reaches; Hyde Park and Bryker Woods for older homes near central. There are honest write-ups of nine of these at [theaustinlocalgroup.com/neighborhoods](/neighborhoods/), including the parts that are not flattering.

### Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?

It is a reasonable one. At 3.1 months of supply neither side has a decisive edge, which means the outcome depends more on the specific house and your specific terms than on the market. That is the normal condition, and Austin has not spent much of the last decade in it.

### How much are property taxes in Austin?

Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.

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*Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers November 2015; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.*

*Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.*

*Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, [ask me directly](/#contact).*

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