# Austin Housing Market Report: June 2018, The Two-Week Rule in a Fast Market

> The Austin metro median sale price was $325,000 in June 2018, +3.3% year over year, with homes selling in 22 days and 2.3 months of supply. The Two-Week Rule in a Fast Market, what the numbers mean if you are buying or selling in Austin.

Mike Vilece · July 15, 2018
Canonical page: https://theaustinlocalgroup.com/blog/austin-housing-market-june-2018/

At **2.3 months of supply**, June 2018 was a seller's market across the Austin metro. The median sale was $325,000, up 3.3% year over year. Homes took a median of 22 days to sell.

## Austin market statistics, June 2018

| Metric | June 2018 |
| --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $325,000 (+3.3% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $152 (+3.6% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 3,275 (-1.1% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,781 |
| Active inventory | 7,617 (+0.3% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 2.3 |
| Median days on market | 22 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.9% |
| Sold above asking | 23.8% |
| Listings with a price cut | 36.5% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 4.57% |

## The Two-Week Rule in a Fast Market

Days on market bottomed at 22 in June, which is roughly the floor for a normal Austin summer. At that pace a buyer sees a house Thursday, decides Friday, and writes Saturday. If your financing is not fully underwritten before you tour, you are shopping for practice.

## What changed since May 2018

The median rose $1,000 from May 2018, a 0.3% move. Time on market lengthened by 2 days, to 22. Active inventory grew by 490 listings, to 7,617. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 1.3 points, to 23.8%.

One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.

## Where this month sits in the cycle

| | June 2018 | May 2018 | June 2017 | Since Oct 2016 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $325,000 | $324,000 | $314,500 | highest since Oct 2016 |
| Median days on market | 22 | 20 | 22 | range 16–54 |
| Active inventory | 7,617 | 7,127 | 7,595 | range 4,660–7,915 |
| Months of supply | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | range 2.1–3.3 |
| Sold above asking | 24% | 25% | 24% | range 14%–30% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 4.57% | 4.59% | 3.9% | range 3.44%–4.59% |

The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where June 2018 falls against every month that came before it.

## If you are buying in Austin right now

2.3 months of supply is a seller's market, but not a chaotic one. Good homes priced correctly move in the first weekend; anything still sitting after three weeks has a reason, and finding out what it is before you offer is the whole job.

The average sale closed at 98.9% of list, essentially at asking. The negotiation in a month like this happens on price cuts before you arrive and on repairs after you are under contract, not on the headline number.

**The payment math.** At $325,000 with 20% down at 4.57%, principal and interest runs about **$1,328 a month**. Add roughly $542 for property taxes and $217 for insurance and you are near **$2,087 a month** all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.

**If you are selling:** you have the leverage, and the mistake available to you is overpricing into it anyway. Homes were selling in 22 days. A listing that sits three weeks in this market has told every agent in town that something is wrong, and you will end up taking less than if you had priced it right on day one.

## Neighborhood in focus

**Hyde Park (78751).** North Loop, North University. Known for craftsman bungalows, established. It fits buyers who want an established neighborhood with long-term value.

The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Hyde Park does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at [/neighborhoods/hyde-park/](/neighborhoods/hyde-park/), including what is wrong with it.

## On in Austin, June 2018

| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Mid-June | **Republic of Texas Biker Rally**, Travis County Expo Center, east | Four days. Congress Avenue and the east side carry the traffic and the noise; the effect on showings is loud rather than obstructive. |
| Jun 19 | **Juneteenth**, East Austin | Parade and celebrations through east Austin, where the holiday has been marked since 1867. Street closures in 78702 and around Rosewood. |

## What is coming next

The McKalla Place vote in August, and a November ballot with seven bond propositions on it.

## Common questions

### How much are property taxes in Austin?

Combined city, county, school district and community college rates in the Austin area generally land between about 1.8% and 2.5% of assessed value, and higher inside a Municipal Utility District, where 3%+ is possible. There is no state income tax in Texas, and property tax is the trade. Two things every buyer should do: file a homestead exemption by April 30 of the year after you close, which caps annual taxable value increases at 10%, and check whether your target address sits in a MUD or PID before you finalize your budget.

### What should I know about flooding before buying in Austin?

Central Texas is Flash Flood Alley: thin soil over limestone, steep terrain, and storms that stall. Austin models its own floodplain, which is often stricter than FEMA's, so a house can sit outside the FEMA 100-year map and inside the city's. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood, NFIP policies take 30 days to take effect, and plenty of local flooding happens outside mapped floodplains. Pull both maps and get a flood quote during your option period.

### Are Austin home prices going up or down?

Up 3.3% year over year as of June 2018. Austin's price growth in this period is running well ahead of national averages, which is a function of job growth, not of anything unusual about the houses.

### Should I buy in Austin or in the suburbs?

The honest trade: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, Pflugerville, Georgetown, Kyle and Buda will get you meaningfully more square footage and, in Round Rock ISD, Leander ISD and Lake Travis ISD, schools that rate as well or better than most Austin ISD zones. What you give up is proximity, and in Austin proximity is the scarce good. The drive from Leander to downtown at 8am is not the drive you tested on a Sunday. Check the MUD rate before you compare prices; a suburban house can carry a higher monthly cost than a more expensive central one.

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*Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers June 2018; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.*

*Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.*

*Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, [ask me directly](/#contact).*

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