# Austin Housing Market Report: July 2023, 45 Days Over 105°, and What It Costs to Cool a House

> The Austin metro median sale price was $469,305 in July 2023, -10.7% year over year, with homes selling in 49 days and 3.8 months of supply. 45 Days Over 105°, and What It Costs to Cool a House, what the numbers mean if you are buying or selling in Austin.

Mike Vilece · August 15, 2023
Canonical page: https://theaustinlocalgroup.com/blog/austin-housing-market-july-2023/

In July 2023, **16%** of the homes that closed across the Austin metro went for over list. Active inventory stood at 9,683 listings, down 6.4% year over year. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.84% that month. The median sale was $469,305, down 10.7% year over year. That made it a roughly balanced market.

## Austin market statistics, July 2023

| Metric | July 2023 |
| --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $469,305 (-10.7% YoY) |
| Median price per sq ft | $230 (-12.3% YoY) |
| Homes sold | 2,520 (+2.7% YoY) |
| New listings | 3,156 |
| Active inventory | 9,683 (-6.4% YoY) |
| Months of supply | 3.8 |
| Median days on market | 49 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.8% |
| Sold above asking | 15.9% |
| Listings with a price cut | 37.6% |
| 30-year fixed rate (avg) | 6.84% |

## 45 Days Over 105°, and What It Costs to Cool a House

Austin recorded 45 days at or above 105 degrees. Practical consequences for a buyer: ask for twelve months of utility bills, look at the age and SEER rating of the HVAC, and check whether the attic is actually insulated. A 20-year-old system in an uninsulated 1970s house in South Austin can run $500 a month in August.

## What changed since June 2023

The median fell $18,417 from June 2023, a 3.8% move. Time on market lengthened by 1 days, to 49. Active inventory grew by 28 listings, to 9,683. The share of homes selling over asking gave up 2.3 points, to 15.9%.

One month is noise. The reason to read it anyway is that direction shows up in inventory and days on market well before it shows up in price, so the months where those two disagree with the headline number are the interesting ones.

## Where this month sits in the cycle

| | July 2023 | June 2023 | July 2022 | Since Oct 2016 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Median sale price | $469,305 | $487,722 | $525,515 | range $255,626–$565,000 |
| Median days on market | 49 | 48 | 34 | range 16–85 |
| Active inventory | 9,683 | 9,655 | 10,347 | range 2,660–10,647 |
| Months of supply | 3.8 | 3.3 | 4.2 | range 0.9–5.4 |
| Sold above asking | 16% | 18% | 37% | range 10%–75% |
| 30-year fixed rate | 6.84% | 6.71% | 5.41% | range 2.68%–6.9% |

The right-hand column is the range this series has covered since October 2016. No forecast in it, just where July 2023 falls against every month that came before it.

## If you are buying in Austin right now

3.8 months of supply is close to balance. You can inspect properly, ask for repairs, and walk away from a house that does not work, three things that were not available to Austin buyers between 2020 and mid-2022.

The average home sold for 97.8% of asking, so roughly 2.2% under list was the normal outcome, not an insulting one.

**The payment math.** At $469,305 with 20% down at 6.84%, principal and interest runs about **$2,458 a month**. Add roughly $782 for property taxes and $313 for insurance and you are near **$3,553 a month** all in. Texas has no state income tax and this is where the state collects instead, budget the tax line from day one, not as an afterthought.

**If you are selling:** 49 median days on market means your first two weeks decide the outcome. Price to the last ninety days of closed comps, not to what your neighbor listed at and did not sell. Condition and photography are doing more work now than they were two years ago.

## Neighborhood in focus

**Deep South Austin (78745).** Cherry Creek, Garrison Park, Manchaca. Known for value, access, first-time buyers. It fits first-time buyers and young families.

The metro numbers above are an average of a very unequal city, Deep South Austin does not move in lockstep with Kyle or Leander, and the gap between ZIPs widens in exactly the months the metro looks calm. There is a longer, more honest write-up at [/neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/](/neighborhoods/deep-south-austin/), including what is wrong with it.

## On in Austin, July 2023

| When | What | Why it matters to a listing |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 4 | **Fourth of July Concert and Fireworks**, Auditorium Shores / Lady Bird Lake | The Austin Symphony on Auditorium Shores with fireworks over the lake. Downtown and the south shore close from late afternoon. |

## What is coming next

Proposition 4 in November. Rates back near 7%.

## Common questions

### I am moving to Austin from California. What actually surprises people?

Four things, in order of how much money they cost. Property taxes, which run roughly 1.8-2.5% and have no Proposition 13-style cap beyond the 10% homestead limit. Homeowners insurance, which is among the highest in the country because of hail. Summer utility bills in an underinsulated house. And foundations: much of the region sits on expansive clay that moves with drought and rain, so watering your foundation is a real practice here and a structural engineer's report is money well spent on any older slab home.

### How much do I need to earn to buy a median-priced Austin home?

At $469,305 with 20% down at 6.84%, the all-in monthly payment is roughly $3,553 including estimated taxes and insurance. At a 30% housing-to-income ratio that implies household income around **$142,000**. Lenders will approve you well above that; whether you should go there is a different question. Property taxes are estimated at 2.0% of value, verify the actual rate for the specific address, because a MUD can push it past 3%.

### Is the Austin housing market going to crash?

It already corrected. The metro median is 16.9% below the April 2022 peak, which is a larger drawdown than most US metros saw in this cycle, because Austin's run-up was larger. What is not present is the 2008 setup: lending standards are tight, most owners hold fixed-rate mortgages well below current rates, and Central Texas is still adding jobs and people. A slow market and a crashing one look different, and this is the first one.

### Is it a good time to buy a house in Austin?

It is a reasonable one. At 3.8 months of supply neither side has a decisive edge, which means the outcome depends more on the specific house and your specific terms than on the market. That is the normal condition, and Austin has not spent much of the last decade in it.

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*Part of a retrospective series on the Austin market, one post per month since 2016, compiled from the historical record. This edition covers July 2023; every figure is as reported for that month, and nothing in it looks past it.*

*Source: Redfin Data Center metro market tracker: single-family, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, not seasonally adjusted. Mortgage rates are the monthly average of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate. Payment, tax and insurance figures are estimates for illustration and are not a quote. Median sale price is not a guarantee of value for any specific property.*

*Written by Mike Vilece, a licensed Texas real estate agent with Compass in Austin. If you want the version of this that applies to your street and your budget, [ask me directly](/#contact).*

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